Iran vs. six world powers: in anticipation of next round of negotiations

Iran vs. six world powers: in anticipation of next round of negotiations

The ultimate goal is not a war as they think in Israel, but deterrence of Iran’s nuclear program because Western powers prove incapable of terminating it.

The meeting of six world powers with Iran over Iran’s nuclear program in Istanbul was a kind of cold shower for Israel. Jerusalem apparently expected Iran to frustrate the negotiations like a year ago, so that she would have a great opportunity to start a war. But everything turned out the other way round.

PanARMENIAN.Net - As reported by DEBKAfile with reference to its Iranian and intelligence sources, the following questions were to be discussed during the talks: 1. Iran will continue to enrich low-grade 3.5 percent uranium but not consent to a cap on quantities; 2. The removal of enriched uranium outside Iran’s borders is not open to discussion and will not be permitted; 3. Iran is prepared for a deal whereby the six powers endorse Iran’s right to enrich as much high-grade 20-percent enriched uranium as it wishes according to a three-part formula: a) A joint panel of the six powers and Iran will determine the amounts required to meet the needs of its reactor and the production of isotopes for medical research; b) Iran will sell the surfeit on the international market and become the world’s No. 1 exporter of 20-percent enriched uranium; c) Excess quantities over and above a) and b) will be downgraded by a reverse process from 20 to 3.5 percent; 4. Iran will reject demands to shut down the underground enrichment plant at Fordow, near Qom, but agree to signing the Non-Proliferation Treaty’s Additional Protocol - which would permit IAEA inspectors to make spot checks at all suspect nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow - with one proviso: The six powers must also require Israel to sign the NPT plus the Additional Protocol. If Israel doesn’t sign both parts of this treaty, neither will Iran endorse the AP; 5. The “Israeli dossier” tops the tactical agenda set out by Iran’s top strategic team for the forthcoming nuclear negotiations in Istanbul.

Let us recall that in January 2011, talks between Iran and the 5 +1 group (China, USA, France, Great Britain, Russia and Germany) ended even before starting, because of disagreements over the agenda.

“5 +1” managed to work out a common line: Tehran will be offered to shut down the key nuclear underground enrichment plant near the city of Qom, stop enriching uranium to the level of 20% (this level is required for military purposes) and take its reserves (100kg) out of the Islamic Republic.

With the Istanbul meeting approaching, the Israelis have become especially nervous: they alternate statements on “initiatives” with new threats. “The main challenge will be to keep the Iranians at the negotiating table and not overlook our ultimate goals,” a Western diplomat says. The ultimate goal is not a war as they think in Israel, but deterrence of Iran’s nuclear program because Western powers prove incapable of terminating it. Washington believes that the opening of negotiations with Tehran puts off the prospect of IDF military operations.

It should be noted that Barack Obama will not tolerate that the crisis lead to upsurge of oil prices and his re-election be put in jeopardy. In recent weeks he has been doing everything to appease his Israeli allies, and even supported Benjamin Netanyahu in that he did not exclude the possibility of a military solution. According to Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, “Israel did not promise the U.S. that it would abstain from attacking Iran while negotiations are going on.” However, this statement is probably meant for the negotiators so that they force Tehran to abandon the program. But, as we can see, intimidation and sanctions did not yield any tangible results. And they couldn’t have yielded… If Israel suddenly decided to attack Iran, existence of the Jewish state would be called into question. At the same time it must be obvious to Barak himself that Israel will not attack Iran while the U.S., EU, UN and Russia are having talks with it. If the Secretary of Defense admits that possibility, then the IDF has a serious problem, Israland defines.

“We are convinced that the U.S. is interested in halting Iran's nuclear program, but we believe that with the measures applied today chances are not great,” said the Minister of Defense. According to Barak, the main condition that must be raised to Iran is that no more uranium enriched to20% be kept in IRI. “We told our American friends that such uranium must be taken out of the country into a neighboring trusted country,” the Defense Minister said. Israel is playing with fire, and it is still unknown how its “initiatives” will be treated not so much by the West, as by the Arabs. Whatever the opposition between Sunnis and Shias be, Israel for all Muslims is if not enemy number one, then at least a biggest trouble.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said after the talks that Tehran is ready to settle all disputes over its nuclear program in exchange for lifting of sanctions by Western countries. “World powers have come to realize that they cannot shut their eyes to the powers of Iran, and the Islamic Republic in its turn will not renounce its right to enrich uranium to 20%,” said Salehi.

There is over a month before next meeting in Baghdad and hopefully the parties will come to terms that will please all parties. Obviously there won’t be full agreement, but certain progress is expected on May 23.

KarineTer-Sahakyan
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