AZERBAIJANI GAS HAS A SMELL OF GUNPOWDER

PanARMENIAN.Net - Somebody believes in it. And even though many transnational companies have quitted their activity in Azerbaijan being sure that the existence of huge oil and gas resources is nothing else but a myth, the ambitious projects on energy transportation continue to attract foreign investors to this country. Hypothetic oil and gas resources have allowed Baku leaders to create a legend about the importance of their country if not in the world, let only in the regional context. Dividing the “bearskin before the bear is shot”, the Azerbaijani authorities have decided to implement an adventure plan which can cause destabilization of the situation in the whole Southern Caucasus region and nearby territories. The matter concerns the shadow side of the project on construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzrum gas pipeline. The editorial staff of the “GazetaSNG.ru” information-analytical Internet portal published recently interesting details about the military-political aspects of this energy project. According to it, during the last stage of negotiations with Turkey about the terms of construction of the gas pipeline they were being conducted by none other than the head of the general staff of Azerbaijan’s armed forces, Hussein Kavrikoghlu. Please, be attentive: not the minister of economy, not the minister of energy, but the head of the general staff of armed forces.

President Heydar Aliyev and General Kavrikoghlu have agreed that Azerbaijan will supply Turkey with gas at the price of $30 for thousand cubic meters. This is more than twice lower of the price at which the Azerbaijani gas is being supplied to Turkey and 5 times lower than the average world market prices. It would be naive to suppose that such a generosity of the official Baku is explained by kindred relations between the to Turkish-language nations. In reality the Azerbaijan’s concession is due to an attempt not to be indebted to the ally, which is going to supply its northern-eastern brothers with military techniques worth $60 million in coming 5 years. (This was the sum, which the Azerbaijani partners yielded to them, taking into account the planned volumes of deliveries of blue fuel). Within the frames of the “Weapon in exchange for gas” new program Ankara is going to increase essentially the volumes of weapons delivered to Baku after 2007. Azerbaijan will receive arms and military techniques worth more than $170 million, according to the “GazetaSNG.ru”. The very fact of such a significant abatement should have aroused suspicion of the international community. As it is known, recently the World Bank demanded from Georgia to set higher tariff for the transit of the natural gas from Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz field via its territory. Otherwise, the WB threatened to stop its financial aid to Georgia. Following the recommendations of the WB, the official Tbilisi announced that the tariff rate should correspond to the world standards making $5-10 for transportation of 1 thousand cubic meters of gas. Meanwhile, primarily the Georgians agreed to set a tariff equal to $2. It is unknown, what did the official Tbilisi expect to have instead. But it is fact that the international financial institutions saw something dangerous and blocked the attempt to use prohibited economic tricks for reaching political goals.

It is incomprehensible, why the WB was so attentive in the case with Georgia, while with Azerbaijan and Turkey it was not. While it is obvious that the militarization of Azerbaijan may lead to extremely dangerous consequences. And the fact is not only the calls for force solution of the Karabakh problem voiced very actively in Baku recently. Karabakh is not the only place of tension able to lead Azerbaijan to an armed conflict. As a result of the policy carried out by the official Baku, the country is in enemy relations with almost all its neighbors. The arms race, in which Azerbaijan is engaged very actively, cannot leave Turkmenistan indifferent, Its relations with Baku can not be considered normal. Azerbaijan’s passion to have more and more arms concerns also Iran. The conflict taken place last summer because of claims of Baku on the disputable fields of the Caspian Sea, were likely to lead to a war. No doubt – if at that time Baku had the arms promised by Turkey, its reaction on the ultimatum of Iran would not be so restrained. It is easy to imagine the consequences of the conflict between the Iran and Azerbaijan, taking into account the recent statement of the U.S. President about the “axis of evil” and Moscow’s reaction. Being equipped with modern weapons, Azerbaijan may become the victim of euphoria, which can lead to loss of sense of reality. And it may start to do new provocations which will be able to lead to a global conflict between the Great Powers.

It is notable that in Baku they do not even try to hide the fact of the expected arm supplies by Turkey. This is what the “Zerkalo” newspaper of Baku writes: “Because of the strong pro-Armenian lobby the chances of the USA to participate in rearmament of Azerbaijan’s army are limited. This is why the USA will have to carry out a policy of parity with Azerbaijan and Armenia. While being the ally of the USA in the region, Turkey enjoys a fool freedom.” Turkey is going to take advantage of this freedom in upcoming months. There is an information that the Defense Ministry of Azerbaijan has already made a list of those armaments, which it would like to have within the frames of the “Weapons in exchange for gas” program. Particularly, Azerbaijan tries to receive “Athilla” self-propelled missile complexes of Turkish production.

The volumes of the Turkish military techniques to be delivered to Azerbaijan are really impressive. But the fact is that the participation in agreements on restriction of regular arms limits Azerbaijan’s right to have that volume of arms and military technique on its territory. In this connection, the Russian media express a concern that the purchased arms may appear in outcast-countries. “It is not excluded that Azerbaijan will try to resell part of the “unnecessary” arms to those countries, which do not have the necessary legal basis for their purchase,” “GazetaSNG.ru” writes. It’s appropriate recall here last year’s sensational statement of Russian MP Victor Ilyukhin saying that there were data confirming Azerbaijan’s participation in the arm supplies to the troops of the “Taliban” movement and to Chechen soldiers (Ilyukhin presented concrete facts about delivery of 150 T-50 tanks to talibans via territory of Pakistan.) It is interesting, what will the U.S. state department officials patronizing Ankara and Baku feel if the worst concerns of their Russian colleagues fulfill.