QUOTAS DECIDE EVERYTHING

PanARMENIAN.Net - The expenses on maintenance of the army have been increased also in Armenia. The budgetary financing of the Armenian armed forces will increase in 2003 by 5% as compared with the current year and will total $77 million. Thus, Azerbaijan spends twice more money on its defense than Armenia. (We’ll note that the matter concerns only Armenia. Nagorno Karabakh has its own military budget). Commenting on this difference in figures, Azerbaijani always explains it by its economic prosperity as compared with Yerevan, which, they say, is not able to allocate enough financing to its army. The following figures will demonstrate the senselessness of these statements. The statistical data show that Azerbaijan spends on the military sphere the 2,8% of its GDP, while Armenia – only 0,9%. Next year Azerbaijan’s expenses on defense will make about 9% of the budget expenditures, while those of Armenia – only 6%. This means that being convinced of the preparedness of its army, the official Yerevan does not find it necessary to militarize its economy at the expense of other important spheres and first of all the social one.

Baku authorities shut their eyes to refugees starving to death. Heydar Aliyev prefers to spend the money which could be directed to dwelling construction, on the strengthening of the military potential. The expectation is that being afraid of the disbalance of forces in the zone of the Karabakh conflict, Armenia will be also obliged to increase the expenses on military needs. In Baku they think that obliging Armenia to spend maximum resources on defense, Azerbaijan will manage to lead Armenia to an economic exhaustion. It seems that the possibility that Azerbaijan itself may face an economic catastrophe does not interest them. At the same time it is incomprehensible, what makes them think that the parties are capable to “survive in extreme conditions”. In 1994 the Armenians won the war, despite the transport blockade, energy crisis, consequences of the earthquake and small human resources. It seems that in Baku they’ve started to forget about this...

The Azerbaijani analysts are too carried away with the dreams about their prevalence in absolute figures. They are unable to understand that after a certain point the arms race will become in fact senseless. It’s not possible always to strengthen the military potential, as the foreign experts follow with attention this process. The arsenals of the Caucasus states are strictly quoted and are regulated by the agreement on regular arms in Europe. The quotas allocated to Armenia and Azerbaijan are equal. Both countries are allowed to have not more than 285 artillery plants, 220 tanks, 220 armored cars, 100 military aircrafts and 50 helicopters. Azerbaijan has almost filled its limit. Armenia, which leaves Azerbaijan behind by some parameters, will also have to stop soon. But the international experts do not know anything about the arsenals of the Karabakh defense army. The agreement does not foresee anything for an unrecognized country. And this will be the biggest problem of the official Baku.

According to the American agency on arms control, the military budget of Azerbaijan has increased by more than 46% during the last 9 years. The same indicator for Armenia is a little bit less. However, it must be taken into account that the expenses on the armed forces of Armenia are not limited only by the resources foreseen by the state budget of the country. Commenting on the figures reflecting the sizes of financing of the army, the Armenian Defense Minister said that “there are alternative sources of financing”. “We have partners, with which there are appropriate agreements on military cooperation and military-technical aid,” Serzh Sarkisian said. He brought the example of two secret agreements signed during the recent visit of the Russian Prime-Minister Mikhail Kasyanov to Yerevan. Serzh Sarkisian also reminded that the Diaspora Armenians “provide certain assistance under concrete state programs including those in the defense sphere”.

So it is evident that Baku will hardly manage to create a disbalance of forces in the nearest future. It will be very difficult for Azerbaijan to surpass Armenia in the imposed arms race.