ELECTIONS IN MOLDOVA MAY INDIRECTLY AFFECT KARABAKH CONFLICT RESOLUTION

PanARMENIAN.Net - Having stirred up revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine, the West shows less interest in Moldova. During his speech in Bratislava, the President of the USА George Bush also mentioned Moldova, talking about countries where democracy may and must win in the nearest future. However, his words can be interpreted differently. The thing is that the current regime in Kishinev is much more convenient for the West than for Russia, that is why United States does not have particular reasons to stir up a revolution in Moldova. In fact, a "velvet revolution" took place in Kishinev yet when the pro-Russian communist Vladimir Voronin reviewed his policy towards the European Union. The westernized course of the president became more apparent after the rejection of Moldavian authorities of the "Kozak plan" proposed by Moscow for Prednestrovian conflict resolution.

Voronin supposes that Americans have to appreciate his aspiration to oppose to Moscow in everything. As an encouragement for the persistency in that issue, Washington abandoned the idea of sending political technologists to Kishinev to train local oppositionists the art of revolution making. The figures of Georgian "Kmara" revolutionary organization were recommended to leave Moldova immediately. The leader of "Kmara" Tea Tutberidze hurried to state that his people had nothing to do in Kishinev and went home immediately. Instead of her Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili went to Moldova but with quite another mission. He arrived there not to stir up a revolution but on the contrary - to suppress the revolution. The support of communist Voronin may seem strange if we take into account that not long ago Saakashvili announced in the Parliament about the necessity to prohibit the activity of Georgian communist party. However, ideology always receded into the background when global geopolitical interests come to the forefront.

The President of Ukraine also supported the Moldavian leader and organized a warm reception in Kiev. The formation of Saakashvili-Ushenko-Voronin "Triple Alliance" also touches upon our interests. Establishment of friendly relations between Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova means that in the structure of GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Moldova) association a new informal union of "more advanced" states is being formed. Important for us is that Azerbaijan is not included in that union. On the other hand extremely dangerous for us is the intention of the initiators of the "Triple Alliance" to unite the "Black Sea zones of CIS" with the European Union. Europeans have so far regarded South Caucasus as a single whole. In all global European programs Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan participate as a component part of the south Caucasian region. But now there is a new tendency - Europeans started to outline "Black Sea region" viewing Georgia in isolation from other Caucasian countries. The victory of westernized parties will speed up close cooperation between the three Black Sea states and will strengthen their claims to full EU membership. The acceptance of Moldavians in the "trust circle" contradicts to the interests of Yerevan and may slow down the integration of our country into European structures. Therefore, it would be more favorable for Armenia if Kishinev stayed under Moscow's sphere of influence. In this view the formation of a powerful pro-Russian opposition in Moldavian parliament will be convenient for us.

The implementation of the Russian scenario in Moldova would enable to speed up the settlement of Prednestrovian problem. In case of the success of political forces enjoying the support of Moscow, there will be a chance of resubmitting to consideration the so-called "Kozak plan" according to which horizontal relations should be formed between Kishinev and Tiraspol. This is an interesting variant for us since it may result in the creation of an important precedent. It is worth reminding that the "Kozak plan" is based on the principle of "common states" which was discussed during negotiations on the settlement of Karabakh conflict. This variant was approved by Yerevan and Stepanakert but was denied by Azerbaijan. In this respect, strengthening of the pro-Russian opposition in the parliament may be very advantageous for Armenia since it might help the recommencement of direct dialogue between the authorities of Moldova and the unacknowledged Prednestrovian Republic. The more examples of loyal attitude towards unacknowledged states the stronger the positions of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.

The victory of communists in Moldavian elections may also be useful for us in another aspect. As it is known, president Voronin insists on the new format of peacemaking operations, based on Kosovo scheme. He urges that mixed peacemaking forces including Russian and NATO militaries should be the guarantors of the maintenance of agreements reached. The necessity of placing peacemaking forces will arise sooner or later also in case of Karabakh if the issue of eastern regions of security zone is solved. The possibility of involvement of American militaries in peacemaking forces will naturally displeasure Moscow. Possibly the solution of this problem will be less painful if the partnership of western and Russian militaries is approbated firstly in Prednestrovia.

However, in any case it should be remembered that the outcome of elections will hardly bring to radical changes because on Monday in Moldova they are going to elect parliament and not president. (Moldova is a presidential country.) Therefore, it is quite possible that the next capital of "velvet revolution" is going to be Baku and not Kishinev. This perspective became more real after the meeting of George Bush with the leader of Ukrainian "revolutionists" Vladislav Kaskiv who was blessed by the U.S. President to "support democratic movements in Azerbaijan".

Artyom Yerkanyan