The GUAM "friendly" Summit held in Baku didn't bring to anything

PanARMENIAN.Net - It is emphasized in the Document that the USA recognizes the territorial integrity of the GUAM countries, supports the Organization's efforts to ensure nuclear security. The USA expresses its willingness to offer financial assistance to the newly formed GUAM Secretariat. It was also emphasized in the press-release that the arrangement about organizing the meeting of the GUAM international coordinators and the US State Department in Washington has been made.

However there is one thing about the Summit that can not be omitted. On September 25, 2006 the Council of Ministers of GUAM confirmed the budget of the Organization and the decision about establishing multinational police forces. It is supposed that these forces will be the alternative of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). However there is one very essential detail; the GUAM Charter hasn't yet been ratified in UNO, and the GUAM regional Organization hasn't become an institution of international law yet. In fact no matter how hard Georgia and Azerbaijan will try to establish their peace forces, GUAM cannot carry any particularly intensive activity. Yet these are not all the disadvantages about which the press stubbornly keeps silent. The absence of the President of Moldova Vladimir Voronin, who wasn't present in Baku because of his visit in Brussels, leads to the idea that the very Moldova prefers the alliance with Russia to "cooperation" with the Organization. After all, GUAM has done nothing during these 10 years, except for the pretentious obligations about friendship, democratization and integration, which in fact do not oblige to anything at all. Just to remind, GUAM has been established with the assistance of the USA as counterbalance to CIS. It seems the same is to be expected for Moldova. The Organization has a maximum program - to attract the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev. However these dreams are not to come true in the nearest future at least, unless the President of Kazakhstan is replaced; then only something may still be assumed.

The most interesting thing is that for the future GUAM Ukraine has a very essential role to play. If Georgia and Azerbaijan are completely for participating in all American and European projects, Ukraine has Yushenko, who is famous for his pro-American and European views and Yanukovich, famous for his pro-Russian views in reasonable limits. When the power of either of them prevails, only then, and not earlier, it will be possible to talk about the future GUAM.

"At present GUAM is a very useful tool for the interested parties. It is an Organization, which is "always at hand". When the objective undergoes any changes, the seriousness of the Organization will accordingly change too. GUAM is being used or is tried to be used by everyone; RF, Poland, the whole Eastern Europe, NATO, EU and the USA. On the economic background there are some possible variants. If the self-dependent economic project cracks - the cooperation is possible. On the political background it is possible to maintain "own" interests, i.e. if the Organization has strong anti-Russian position; it will possess its viewpoint. In short, it is possible to use GUAM as an instrument of "trade" with Moscow by the international institutions", says the analyst of the Center for Strategic Analysis "Spectrum" Sergey Sargsyan.

It seems Ilham Aliev can get no rest from his father's laurels, who had agreed upon establishing GUAM. The same may refer to Saakashvili, but what Yushchenko together with Voronin are up to, is not quite clear. As it has already been mentioned they won't be able to assist each other in conflict resolution. The CIS alternative doesn't seem to succeed yet and won't have any success unless RF refuses to participate in all post-Soviet areas, though this is something that can hardly be expected from RF. Another essential fact to be mentioned about the Summit is that Turkey, for some reasons, wasn't invited to participate in it. Although Turkey is the very country who should have participated in the Summit, both as a US ally and as a "friend" to Azerbaijan; most probably particularly now Turkey wouldn't like to spoil its relationship with Russia.