Thaw seems to have emerged in the process of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation

PanARMENIAN.Net - On the whole, there was nothing new in the Declaration, in spite of the numerous commentaries both from the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides. Notwithstanding the attempts of Official Baku to tilt the balance to her advantage by declaring that the right of territorial integrity stands higher than the right of a nation to self-determination, the Declaration contains no such clause. Azerbaijan insists on the priority of territorial integrity, while Armenia demands right of nations to self-determination. In other words Azerbaijan is determined to return the "occupied" territories, while Armenia requires independence of Nagorno Karabakh.

On this occasion it would be relevant to remind Press Secretary of Azerbaijani FM Khazar Ibrahim that in 1999 Istanbul Charter was adopted in which all the 10 principles of the Helsinki Final Act were equal, and, what is equally important, the Charter also contains the signature of Azerbaijan. Khazar Ibrahim can't but know about it, and if it is so, he opposes his President…

But let us leave aside such trifles. For Armenia, and also for Azerbaijan one of the basic provisions of the Declaration is that in spite of the absence of Nagorno Karabakh in the negotiation process the OSCE Minsk Group remains a mediator in the talks. The point is not in its being good or bad, simply there is no other worked-out mechanism yet. It was especially with the help of the OSCE Minsk Group that the conflict did not enter a «hot» phase.

Signing of the Declaration was accelerated by the «five-day» war of Georgia against South Ossetia. In spite of the burning desire of Georgia and Azerbaijan, Russia displayed complete unwillingness to resign from the Region. Moreover, unleashing a war is especially dangerous for the side that declares it and Ilham Aliyev realizes it perfectly. Naturally, should it declare war against Nagorno Karabakh, Russia would not interfere. Well, in any case the Nagorno-Karabakh Defence Army is in no need of assistance. It absolutely manages to defend its borders and Baku knows it well. At a recent Armenian-Azerbaijani meeting representatives of Azerbaijan once again began listing their military equipment, the volume of gas and oil export, etc. On this account, experts of the Armenian delegation wished Azerbaijan well-being and prosperity but they also noticed that however rich in oil and gas Azerbaijan might be, most of its population live in poverty, and for nearly 20 years miserable refugees have been nestling in tent camps, embodying the martyr Azerbaijan.

But let us revert to the Declaration. Clause 5 says: "The parties find it important to encourage conditions that will contribute to the consolidation of trust, within the framework of efforts aimed at settling the conflict." This must be the most difficult point to realize, since anti-Armenian hysteria in Azerbaijan, heated and openly provoked by the authorities can be overcome only after generations and only on the condition that it is immediately put an end to. This hysteria has its reasons: Azerbaijan is a poly-ethnic republic and the image of a «common external enemy» still helps the authorities to preserve the integrity of their country. Thus, when Baku speaks of the territorial integrity of the country, it realizes that not only Nagorno Karabakh will become independent. Talishes, Lezgins, and Udins will also demand independence. They are all compactly living on their land and were once joined to Azerbaijan at the will of Stalin and Narimanov.

Be that as it may, thaw seems to have emerged in the process of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation. On the one hand, the desire of Turkey and Iran to take part in the process causes some anxiety since both these countries are extremely interested in Azerbaijan and Armenia. On the other hand, however, the OSCE Minsk Group would hardly like to draw new players into this game. In any case a pretty interesting situation is taking shape in the South Caucasus, after which the region may finally change both in borders and in the quantity of states.

Karine Ter-Sahakyan