Instead of border opening, Armenia must require security blanket from Turkey

PanARMENIAN.Net - Meanwhile, it is important to bear in mind that evil peace is better than a good war. But there is also another danger for Turkey and Armenia: the desire of Kurds to at any cost join hands with Armenians, which would be a painless job with the boundary open. According to Ankara's version, once the Armenian-Turkish, or - to be more exact - the Armenian-Kurdish boundary is open, there will begin the commerce of weapons, exchange of militants, and as a result Armenia will share the fare of Northern Iraq. Turkey has thoroughly counted this version, but it's difficult to say how official Yerevan pictures this, since cases of information leak are more frequent in Turkey than in Armenia. Under the conditions of total secrecy of Armenian-Turkish negotiations and occasionally appearing "analytical" surveys, it becomes difficult to judge how deeply Yerevan realizes the "advantages" and the "charms" of the open border.

If we take as basis the pessimistic version, we can forecast that no one in the world will stir a finger to help Armenia, like in 1915, when, however, we drew no lesson. It would be naive and dangerous to consider that on the other side of Ararat there live people, who are looking forward to peace and friendly relations with us. Armenia may simply drive herself into just another trap, similar to the one into which the Dashnaks drove themselves in 1908, by supporting the Young Turks who had actually given carte blanche for extermination of our nation.

There is also a less pessimistic view: Armenia slowly dissolves in Turkey or Kurdistan, undertaking nothing, but wants to survive. This way leads if not to an instantaneous destruction, at least to a complete assimilation in a maximum of a couple of generations. There are still some Armenians living in the desolate villages of Western Armenia. They remember their origins, but know no single word in Armenian, and naturally, practice Islam. Alas, no optimistic view can be expected in the current situation: we are few in number, we are deserted, we have not finally formulated our national idea, and lastly, we do not have a statesman, similar to Ataturk. It sounds unpleasant, sad, but it is so.

Of no less importance is the economic factor. In all probability, Armenia will gain outlet to the Black sea ports, such as to Trabzon. But to what extent will the safety of loads and the security of their attendants be guaranteed against the background of the splash of nationalism and the caught-in-war regions of the Turkish and Kurdish militants? It is difficult to picture a more incorrect and a more inconvenient way, saturated with high prices for the transit. The tariffs will definitely be established Turkey, and how she is able to dictate her will can be easily seen by the example of Nabucco. It is not even excluded that transportation through Georgia, under the entire unpredictability of Georgian authorities and Russian pressure, will cost considerably less than under the "open" Armenian-Turkish boundary.

As a matter of principle, instead of normalization of diplomatic relations and border opening, which, by the way, is of no value in itself, Armenia must require security blanket from Turkey. And because it is impractical to require safety from Ankara, Armenia has no choice but to rely only on herself.

Karine Ter-Sahakyan