Turkey and Russia will wait till Iranian issues are settled

PanARMENIAN.Net - The Armenian MFA reacted almost instantly, stating that Mr. Mammadyarov's statement testifies exactly the opposite - the intention of Azerbaijan to continue her counter-productive policy in the same spirit and just another time to attempt to shift the blame onto Armenia. In other words, the statement meant a new break-up of negotiations. However, it is necessary to note that break-up of negotiations, in case it occurs, does not depend on Yerevan or Baku. The only matter is that the latest events in Iran gave the West to understand that even "controlled chaos" can become uncontrollable and it is more preferable in this case to adhere to one's previous positions. The negotiation process on Nagorno-Karabakh continues for this very reason. And it is unimportant for how long the process will go on and whether at the end of the year there will be signed the framework agreement, so often indicated by Mathew Bryza. Most likely, nothing will be signed either before the end of this year or after it, just like the regional energy projects hanging in mid-air.

Hardly will Edward Nalbandyan and Elmar Mammadyarov discuss in Paris, for example, the Nabucco project, but this project will be implied, just as 10 years ago in the negotiations was invisibly present the oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan. And thus, no pipeline will ever bring to resolution of the conflict, no matter how eagerly Europe and USA should be looking forward to it. The meeting of the Foreign Ministers of conflicting sides, will be, most likely, dedicated to the preparation of next meeting between the Presidents in Moscow due in July. But again, it's useless waiting for anything definite.

Nevertheless, let us try to predict the possible developments in the region so far as it concerns the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Iran will still long be feverish; it will keep the whole world community in tension for rather a long time. Most likely, Ahmadinejad will stay in power, but the possibility of conducting special elections is not excluded: everything depends on how strong the positions of Rafsanjani are and whether he will be able to throw down Ali Khamenei. Possibly we'll get the answers to these questions in the near future. And only when the situation in the region is somewhat normalized, Turkey and Russia will appear with their proposals on conflict regulation. Moreover, these proposals will be too sharp neither for Armenia nor for Azerbaijan, although practice shows that it is almost impossible to please everyone, and what is acceptable for Yerevan and Baku, might be totally unacceptable for Stepanakert.

Following the example of US new Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon, all the interested parties began to speak of two and even three principles of regulation. But, naturally, this is not the point at issue. Everything is considerably simpler: renunciation of Nagorno-Karabakh in exchange for participation in regional energy projects. In a word, what Armenia has always refused and will refuse. Therefore no progress in negotiations, let alone the signing of a framework agreement.

However, somewhat alarming is the latest statement of Ambassador Vladimir Kazimirov. According to the Russian diplomat, the public opinion in Armenia should be prepared for necessary concessions from both Armenian sides concerning the Karabakh issue. "I believe the Armenian community should be prepared for certain concessions it will have to make to the Azerbaijani side. The Armenians of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh can't but be interested in the settlement of this conflict", said Kazimirov.

Public opinion, of course, should be prepared, only the matter is that in the last 15 years these societies have gone so far from each other that "to prepare" them for anything simply sounds impossible. And all words about "creating an atmosphere of confidence", "tolerance" are nothing else but consonant to such expressions as "progress has been achieved", "base principles", about which more than once have we written.

Karine Ter-Sahakyan