Nothing new: Armenian-Turkish relations and CSTO

PanARMENIAN.Net - Sargsyan's statement, made during a joint press conference with his Serbian counterpart Boris Tadic, was later repeated at the meeting with Armenian Diaspora representatives. Unarguably, the Armenian President said what he was to say. Ankara's immediate reaction followed. If we leave out Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's statements, we can directly declare that Ankara is convinced of Sargsyan's visit to Bursa for the purpose of attending the football match between the Armenian and Turkish national teams. Azerbaijan couldn't but react to the incident either. Azeri political scientists expect that the Armenian President will after all attend the football match and ground their predictions with the expected visit of Vladimir Putin to Ankara due in August 2009. Baku's judgment is, as usual, simple: Putin will order, Sargsyan will go. Apparently, President of the "independent and sovereign Azerbaijan" does what he is ordered by Erdogan and Gul. Nevertheless, we must admit that the degree of probability of the Armenian President's presence at the match Turkey-Armenia is not so high. There is also the factor of the EU, which in this case plays against Turkey. Even if the Armenian-Turkish border is opened at least for two hours, it will be impossible to close it back, no matter how opposed Azerbaijan is to its opening. With the the Armenian-Turkish border opened, chances of Ankara to join the European Union will rise but not so much as to expect the integration in near future; however the negotiations will go more easily, and Turkey is well-aware of it.

The second event of the week was the already traditional "without tie" meeting of the CSTO members in Kyrgyzstan. Everybody was present, including Alexander Lukashenko and Islam Karimov, who has not so far decided whether CSTO is necessary to Uzbekistan or not. After all, it is necessary: the border disputes between the Central Asian countries can best be addressed with the participation of a third country, i.e. Russia. Whether anyone likes it or not is quite a different question, but the fact is that thus far in the post-Soviet territory this Organization replaces NATO, for the countries drawn into the orbit of Russia.

At the summit the Presidents evidently discussed the issue of establishment of collective rapid reaction forces (CRRF), but it is hardly possible that they arrived at an understanding. In our view, the problem is not financing, but the fuzziness in the spheres of activity of CRRF. Belarus and Armenia rightly believe that their subdivisions will have to participate in military operations in Central Asia, while CSTO has been repeatedly declaring about the non-intervention of the forces of Organization in the Karabakh conflict, in case Azerbaijan starts military aggression. All this, of course, cannot but put Yerevan on her guard. It seems CRRF will remain a pious wish until the end of the year like many other initiatives within the framework of the CIS and the CSTO.

And, finally, at the end of the week Tehran began trials against the opposition politicians, who are accused of provoking riots. The case of 100 people suspected of causing tension after the presidential elections in Iran, will be considered at the court trial, reported news agency Fars. The defendants are mostly political activists of the camp of reformists. Those detained are accused of conspiring with terrorist groups, laying a bomb, carrying firearms and hand grenades, as well as intentionally attacking the police and volunteers, providing the enemy press with photographs related to the rallies, robbing, violating the law and damaging general and public property. Iran is presently "renowned" by the atrocities against those thinking differently and those violating the regime of ayatollahs. But this time there may be quite a different outcome: Tehran needs participation in Nabucco, and for that reason she would like to look a civilized country in the eyes of the West.