Davutoglu arrives in Athens to bargain for Azerbaijan

PanARMENIAN.Net - Back in 1975, when the OSCE (then CSCE) was established, it was declared an organization whose interests extended from Vancouver to Vladivostok. Much time has passed since then and the geopolitical configuration of the world has changed. Initially the organization was unipolar; now it is moving toward multipolarity, but its priorities remain the same: energy security, border management, and, of course, attempts to prevent and settle conflicts. It must be admitted that OSCE is able to achieve the latter with difficulty, but the fact that "hot spots" are rather few on the Eurasian continent can be recorded as an asset of the OSCE, albeit with some exaggeration. But be that as it may, the OSCE Minsk Group has been able to preserve the fragile peace in the area of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict for 15 years already.

The Summit itself is interesting to Armenia, first of all, for the resolution to be made by the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs on the basis of Madrid Principles, the details of which are known to few people only, but are commented by almost everyone. There is one more delicate point: Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is presently in Athens. It is rather strange, if we take into consideration the extremely tense relations between Greece and Turkey over the Cyprus issue. Most likely, Davutoglu has arrived in Athens to bargain for Azerbaijan, i.e. once again to make it clear to Baku that the "brotherly people" will never leave Azerbaijan "in trouble".

And considering the fact that this summit is the first since the signing of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols, the reason for Davutoğlu's visit becomes obvious. Turkey is there not because the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations are interrelated, they are officially separated, but because based on the outcome of this meeting, Turkey is going to build its policy in the Armenian-Turkish relations.

Armenian-Turkish negotiations are completed, and it's up to the parliaments of both countries to ratify the Protocols. However, it would mean that the two processes - the Armenian-Turkish relations and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict - which were declared independent with an agreement between all the parties, including the Minsk group co-chairs, or even without an agreement, accept this fact in the frames of two parallel negotiations.

The Turkish Foreign Minister has apparently come to warn the OSCE Minsk Group, and consequently the Russian Foreign Ministry and the U.S. Department of State, that on December 7 the Turkish parliament will make an "appropriate decision" and, as already mentioned, on the spot in Athens will try to bargain for better conditions for Azerbaijan.

In view of Turkey's bend towards the East and North, it is likely that Turkey will try to extort at least some treats for Azerbaijan from the West, so as not to disrupt the Erdogan-Obama meeting, scheduled for December 7. The collapse of US-Turkish negotiations promises serious complications to Turkey. It is not just the threat of recognition of the Armenian Genocide by the United States, but also a warning against possible support of Turkey to Azerbaijan in case, after collapse of talks on Karabakh, the latter tries to launch a war against NKR. A side effect will be the recognition of NKR. Hardly would Turkey recommend Azerbaijan to start a war, having received a warning from the U.S. on the recognition of NKR. In this case, even the alliance Russia-Azerbaijan would be meaningless, because Russia - our "true" ally - would never be able to oppose such a step by the U.S. Ankara, Yerevan and Moscow realize it perfectly well.