Constitutional Court of Armenia considerably cut room for Turkish maneuver

PanARMENIAN.Net - This, coupled with a number of internal conflicts, especially those with the Kurds, will hardly help the Justice and Development Party and Prime Minister Erdogan to talk of Turkey as of a country living in peace with its neighbors, and, what is even more absurd, with its national minorities. Among other things, under these circumstances Turkey's integration is postponed till a later date, if it is at all appropriate to talk about timing. Despite the fact that most of the political forces and the nation as a whole are against the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations in the form in which the protocols are offered, it should nonetheless be noted that Armenia still has time to wait for a response from the other side. Moreover, the Armenian parliament can speed up the process, by being the first to ratify the Protocols, thus putting Ankara in an "awkward situation". Yerevan can also take advantage of international law and simply denounce the Protocols, based on the reluctance of the other side to ratify them. Thus, the blame for the frustration of agreements will be entirely shifted on Turkey, which on the one hand is still a hostage to Azerbaijan's interests, and on the other, has to defend its own interests. In addition, Ankara has to synchronize all its steps with the U.S. and Russia or with each of the powers separately. By the way, the Azeri media outlets already report that after his visit to Moscow, the Turkish Prime Minister is also planning a visit to Yerevan. However, Ahmet Duran, the Prime Minister's Foreign Press Coordinator announced: "Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not planning a visit to Armenia." Indeed, Erdogan's alleged visit to Yerevan makes no sense, unless such an agreement has been reached in Moscow. That agreement can only concern the Kars Treaty, because in no way is it possible to "negotiate" with Yerevan over the Karabakh conflict and the Armenian Genocide. Ankara follows the ask-for-maximum-to-at-least-get-something principle. And that something is the Kars Treaty, according to which Armenia is to recognize the Turkish frontiers.

Erdogan's disastrous visit to Washington alerted Ankara, and now during his visit to Moscow the Turkish Prime Minister is trying to be more careful in his various estimates and judgments about Armenia. And not because Russia is good to Armenia, but namely because it proceeds from Ankara's personal interests. These are energy projects, an increase in commodity circulation and a path to the Turkic Asian peace. The road to the establishment of Great Turan passes through Moscow, and Erdogan will try to do his best to facilitate this challenging task. Let us say at once that this goal is unrealistic in the foreseeable future, but it doesn't mean that there is no need to strive.

As for further developments concerning the Protocols, we can make some predictions, given the current stance of both sides. If all goes as planned in Zurich, Turkey is simply obliged to ratify the Protocols by April. Otherwise, she would receive reproaches from three sides: the U.S., Russia and the EU, which would hardly have a good say on the popularity of Turkey's leadership, especially if you recall Erdogan's last year's escapade in Davos. Armenia, as already stated, will be sitting and waiting, this position being not at all a bad one. Alas, Yerevan cannot take serious steps, but once again Turkey should not forget about the Armenian Diaspora and should less rely on Baku.