Armenian-Turkish process will not be suspended

PanARMENIAN.Net - But if you try to calculate the forthcoming steps of Ankara, which, by the way, is not so difficult, it must be noted that in all probability there will be no suspension of Armenian-Turkish processes. World powers will not simply allow Ankara and Yerevan to engage in gag. Most interesting in this situation is Sinirlioglu’s visit to Baku, where he will continue to assure his Azeri “brothers” that the attitude of Turkey towards Azerbaijan has not changed. We just wonder whether there are still naive people in Baku, who believe this poorly disguised lie. It appears that for persistence of Armenian-Turkish negotiations Erdogan has to sacrifice Azerbaijan, while Armenia has to keep from demanding Barack Obama to use the term “genocide” in his April 24 address. On the whole, it could have been worse. Before referring to Armenian concessions, it should be reminded that Turkey has set several conditions before Azerbaijan, only after whose execution the Azerbaijani-Turkish dialogue can continue. Among them we find introduction of visa-free regime (not welcomed by Baku), official recognition of independence of Northern Cyprus, reduction of gas prices, etc. Azerbaijani politicians prefer not to talk about this, trying to shift the fault of all their foreign policy failures onto Armenia.

As for Armenian concessions, Barak Obama in any case will think of a new euphemism in order to avoid the term “genocide” and not to push away Turkey for good and all. And because exclusively the Armenian Diaspora deals with this issue, the Armenian President can rightfully say that the Republic of Armenia does not specifically require anything from the U.S. President or the Congress. But international recognition of the Armenian Genocide and its consequences are one of the trends of the foreign policy of Armenia and nobody has the right to interfere in what and how Yerevan does.

Let us note that in this process risks are greater for Turkey than for Armenia. Ratification of the Protocols may lead to special nation-wide elections, in which Islamists may lose. The military and nationalists will come to power, which is much worse for Yerevan than the Erdogan government, although when it comes to Turkey it is useless to think of what is good or bad for Armenia. Simply Erdogan is the lesser of two evils. Or maybe he is not? In any case opposition is against normalization of relations and opening of the border in particular. And if by and large it is all the same to Armenia what will happen to the boundary, for Ankara it is in some way another advantage in the negotiations for EU integration. The advantage is, however, indistinct especially in the light of recent statements by Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy. Anyway, the Turkish parliament cannot but ratify the Protocols, otherwise the ruling party in Turkey will be reminded of the threats against the Armenians, the Cyprus problem and many other things. In short, the Protocols will be ratified no matter we like it or not, and the parties interested in this “international project” will begin a new phase: implementation of the items of the Protocols. And this phase will be much harder than signing or ratification. The real “auction” will begin just then. But all this will take place after April 24, although we might also be mistaken. If the talks in Washington go as scheduled by the United States, ratification might take place on April 22 or 23, on the anniversary of promulgation of the Armenian-Turkish agreement.