Turkey won’t unleash a large-scale war against Syria in the near future, Armenian political expert said.

According to Anush Hovhannisyan, Turkey won’t launch a war that threatens it big losses, while the U.S. will hardly start military operations in Syria by the end of the presidential race.

The expert further noted Syria’s Kurdish districts as Turkey’s target, voicing skepticism that the shell explosion in the Turkish city of Akcakale was masterminded by the Syrian army.

“The incident might have been provocation by Turkey,” the political analyst said, drawing a parallel with Sarajevo market shelling, prompting NATO’s intervention in the Bosnian conflict.