New war in Karabakh unlikely, American expert says

November 13, 2013 - 15:10 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net - Karabakh conflict must be resolved through political means in the context of Russia’s pressure on Azerbaijan, an expert at Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies said.

“A new war in Karabakh is unlikely. However, should Tehran undermine western efforts in solving the nuclear issue, a military strike on Iran may be followed by expansion of hostilities in South Caucasus, with Karabakh among the hot spots. Such a development of events may boost probability of a war in Karabakh,” Dr. Alexander Murinson said.

According to the American expert, Turkey’s extreme focus on its southern borders makes it oblivious of the imminent danger in the East. "Ankara is being very careful after previous efforts for normalization of ties with Armenia fell through. Still, Karabakh is among the issues on the Turkish diplomacy agenda, with Ankara capable of contributing to the settlement of regional conflicts and improvement of ties with Armenia," he said, according to Vesti.Az.

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The conflict between Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan

The conflict between Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan broke out as result of the ethnic cleansing launched by the Azeri authorities in the final years of the Soviet Union. The Karabakh War was fought from 1991 (when the Nagorno Karabakh Republic was proclaimed) to 1994 (when a ceasefire was sealed by Armenia, NKR and Azerbaijan). Most of Nagorno Karabakh and a security zone consisting of 7 regions are now under control of NKR defense army. Armenia and Azerbaijan are holding peace talks mediated by the OSCE Minsk Group up till now.

The Armenian-Turkish Protocols

The Protocols aimed at normalization of bilateral ties and opening of the border between Armenia and Turkey were signed in Zurich by Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian and his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu on October 10, 2009, after a series of diplomatic talks held through Swiss mediation.

On January 12, 2010, the Constitutional Court of the Republic of Armenia found the protocols conformable to the country’s Organic Law.

Commenting on the CC ruling, the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that “it contains preconditions and restrictive provisions which impair the letter and spirit of the Protocols.” ”The decision undermines the very reason for negotiating these Protocols as well as their fundamental objective. This approach cannot be accepted on our part. Turkey, in line with its accustomed allegiance to its international commitments, maintains its adherence to the primary provisions of these Protocols. We expect the same allegiance from the Armenian government,” the Ministry said.