Economist Intelligence Unit: Baku will increase pressure on Armenia

PanARMENIAN.Net - The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has forecasted that Azerbaijan will continue toincrease pressure on Armenia, which will probably further destabilize Armenian politics.

The analysis from the research and analysis division of the Economist Group comes days after Azerbaijani forces established a checkpoint on the new route of the Lachin corridor near the border with Armenia, the only road connecting Armenia to Nagorno Karabakh.

The move has increased the blockade of Nagorno Karabakh, which has already been ongoing since mid-December when environmental activists blocked the Lachin corridor. A checkpoint on the border would give Azerbaijan the ability to stop any cars travelling between Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh.

Azerbaijan has been demanding to be able to set up such a checkpoint for some months now, as it seeks to tighten its control over Nagorno Karabakh.

“It was unclear how it would be able to do that without risking a confrontation with the Russian peacekeepers, who are supposed to be maintaining the road’s security. Although details are still scarce about how the checkpoint was established, it seems to have happened without any sort of clash with the Russian forces—but that, in turn, has raised questions about the Russians’ passivity. The ceasefire agreement that ended the 2020 war tasked the Russian peacekeeping contingent with “control” over the road and ensuring safe passage of people and goods along it,” the EIU said.

“When Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did finally react—about 24 hours after news of the new checkpoint broke—it issued a tepid statement that the original provisions of the ceasefire should be maintained. This will probably further undermine Armenian trust in its ostensible security guarantors, who have repeatedly proven unable or unwilling to act assertively in Nagorno Karabakh. Tension in the Armenian-Russian alliance has been high, and this will only exacerbate matters.”

The EUI believes setting up this new checkpoint will be difficult to reverse as Azerbaijan seeks control over Nagorno Karabakh.

“The move is in line with our view that Azerbaijan will continue to increase pressure on Armenia with the intent to force it to accept its demands and have Armenia recognise its sovereignty over all of Nagorny Karabakh, including parts still governed by an Armenian separatist government in Stepanakert. On top of the humanitarian consequences, such a move will probably further destabilise Armenian politics, as the current authorities will be seen as handing over to the “enemy” what has been seen as an integral part of the Armenian homeland,” the analysis added.