Report: leaving CSTO may trigger military threats for Armenia

PanARMENIAN.Net - A report by the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, titled "Armenia's Foreign Policy at a Crossroads: The Crisis of Multivectorism," states that if Yerevan officially leaves the CSTO and Russian troops withdraw from Armenia, conditions may emerge in the coming years that could lead to military actions by Turkey and Azerbaijan against Armenia.

The report notes that Armenia's defeat in the 44-day war caused deep shock and political apathy among the Armenian public. Meanwhile, Armenian authorities have shifted the blame onto Russia, portraying it as an unreliable ally.

Since 2022, Armenian authorities have reduced military-technical cooperation with Russia and the CSTO while strengthening ties with the U.S., NATO, and the European Union. However, analysts point out that the U.S. does not provide Armenia with serious security guarantees, and within the EU, only France, Greece, and Cyprus support the rearmament of the Armenian army and offer political backing. The report emphasizes that in the event of an Armenian-Azerbaijani military confrontation, these countries would not be reliable security guarantors for Armenia.

"Their actions only reinforce Ankara's and Baku's confidence that they can resolve the 'Armenian issue' militarily if a favorable situation arises. Such conditions could develop in the coming years if Armenia officially leaves the CSTO and removes Russia’s military presence," the report states.

The report also highlights that Russia is not interested in further deterioration of relations with Armenia, but maintaining the current state of CSTO sabotage and discrediting the organization by freezing membership is also not in Russia’s interests.

"Moreover, Russia views the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union as interconnected integration structures—one in the security sphere, the other in the economic domain," the report notes.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated at the Second Global Armenian Summit that the CSTO poses threats to Armenia’s continued existence and statehood. He noted that Armenia's membership in the CSTO will be restored only when it receives clear answers to its concerns.

Armenia has de facto frozen its participation in the CSTO. While it has not formally left the organization, it no longer participates in military exercises and plans to withhold financial contributions.