Minister: Armenia targets at least 6% GDP growth in 2025

PanARMENIAN.Net - Armenia's Ministry of Economy has set a target of at least 6% economic growth in 2025, surpassing the 5.1% forecast in the state budget, Minister Gevorg Papoyan said, according to Armenpress.

While the final GDP figures for 2024 are not yet compiled, economic growth reached 6% over the first nine months. "We recorded higher-than-expected results in the last quarter, particularly in December. In November-December 2023, gold exports and re-exports peaked, making growth seem unlikely to many. However, December saw a 4.7% rise in economic activity, closing the year with an 8% economic activity rate," said the minister.

Papoyan estimates that in 2024, GDP will exceed the 10 trillion dram threshold, reaching 10.2 trillion drams. "We forecast a 6% growth rate for 2024, which is higher than initially planned," he emphasized.

The 2025 budget projected a 5.1% growth rate, but the Ministry of Economy has set a higher goal of 6% or more. "We never settle for predicted figures. In recent years, we have consistently surpassed expectations. In 2025, we aim to exceed the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank, and international partners," Papoyan noted.

Regarding economic structure, the minister expects the construction sector to remain a key driver in 2025, with around 6.2% growth. Despite the suspension of the income tax refund program, construction volumes are expected to stay high. Industry and services are also projected to grow by 5.2%. "This means we are entering a phase of qualitative growth, as industry and services are primarily export-oriented sectors," he stated.

Papoyan stressed the importance of economic diversification for long-term stability. "It's better to have steady 5% growth than to see a 15% surge one year and stagnation the next," he said.

On exports, the minister noted that gold re-exports significantly impacted 2023’s figures. However, even without gold exports, 2024’s export performance was stronger than in 2023. "Excluding gold, exports totaled $7 billion," he said. For 2025, overall export figures may decline due to lower gold re-exports, but Papoyan assured that Armenia’s economy is not solely dependent on this factor, and its impact on GDP growth remains limited.

Addressing Armenia’s integration with the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Papoyan stated, "A direct combination of these frameworks is hard to imagine. I don’t think such a mechanism exists. Exiting the EAEU is not on our agenda, and we continue active cooperation within the union." However, he acknowledged that the government could not ignore the civic initiative presented in Parliament advocating for EAEU withdrawal. "This is a separate process that does not intersect with current realities in the short or medium term," he said.

The minister recalled Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s statement: "Armenia is ready to be as close to the EU as the EU deems appropriate." He highlighted that Armenia is taking steps to align with EU market requirements. "A laboratory was launched at the end of 2024, and additional capacities will be established in the first half of 2025," he added.

Papoyan emphasized that Armenia is modernizing its economy at a fast pace, with businesses increasingly adopting advanced technologies. "The key goal is to develop the production of complex, high-value products so that Armenia transitions from a raw material exporter to a manufacturer of high-value goods," he said.

The minister also discussed the Armenia-U.S. strategic partnership document and its potential economic impact.