Yushenko and Aliev Offended With Each Other

PanARMENIAN.Net - Yushenko's refusal to visit the capital of Azerbaijan may be caused by the deterioration of both interpersonal and intergovernmental relations, since there are strong grounds for both of the variants. The delay of the official visit is undoubtedly a demarche connected with Azerbaijan parliamentary elections that can hardly be called democratic. "We are going to request Victor Yushenko to refrain from visiting Azerbaijan", said the representative of ruling "Our Ukraine" party, deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Katerinchuk who proved his appeal by the open neglect of democratic norms and human rights by the government of Azerbaijan. Another reason for the demarche was the decision of Baku leaders on the deportation of 16 Ukrainian observers who had arrived in Baku on the eve of parliamentary elections. Among deported were the chairman of the International Institute of Democracy Sergey Taran and member of the political council of "Pora" party Evgeny Zolotarev. Those people have had a significant input in the victory of "orange revolution" in Ukraine.
Ilham Aliev in his turn supposes that Victor Yushenko sponsors forces that provide direct support to Azeri revolutionists who strive to achieve change of power in Baku at any price. The president of Ukraine has a considerable influence on the leaders of "Pora" movement who openly criticize Aliev's administration. One of the initiators of Ukrainian revolution Andrey Yusov recently announced that the movement is going support Azeri revolutionists till the victory of democracy. Ukrainian foreign ministry in its turn poured oil on the flames with an announcement mentioning about the serious violations taken place in the course of parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan. Baku leaders are also exasperated at the fact that the city administration of Kiev actually sanctioned a protest action in front of the embassy of Azerbaijan in Kiev. Participants of the demonstration accused Aliev in open falsifications and demanded cancellation of election results.
Relations between Kiev and Baku started deteriorating yet before the elections when despite Ilham Aliev's expectations Ukrainian authorities did not arrest Rasul Guliev in Simferopol. At that time Kiev faced with a dilemma - strengthening of relations with the GUAM partner or the reputation of a fighter for democracy. It looks like Yushenko chose the second variant. Russian political scientists view this situation as an evidence of the upcoming collapse of GUAM. This opinion is held particularly by the chairman of the Institute of CIS Countries, deputy of State Duma Constantin Zatulin. Even if Zatulin exaggerates, it is quite obvious that the unity of four post-Soviet states will really weaken because of the deterioration of relations between Yushenko and Aliev.

This tendency may be of interest for Armenia since it is the political role of Ukraine that gives importance to doubtful GUAM initiatives connected with the regulation of conflicts on former USSR territories. Three out of four GUAM countries have conflicts. This is why they strive to use any international platforms for the internationalization of Abkhazian, South-Osetian, Prednestrovian and Karabakh conflicts. The readiness of Ukraine to follow the tastes of GUAM countries makes such initiatives quite serious. Being a partner of Baku Ukraine often spoke in international organizations from anti-Armenian positions. Recent contradictions between Ukraine and Azerbaijan may make Victor Yushenko to pursue a more balanced politics in the region.