Peace in the region dictates price for oil

PanARMENIAN.Net - However, American generals declare the unfeasibility of opening the third front. The other day Admiral Michael Mallen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Military Forces, noted that military operation against Iran would be "too difficult" for the US Armed Forces.

Fuel was added to the fire by Israel, which "does not exclude the possibility of using force to make Iran give up the operations of enriching uranium." The position of Tel-Aviv is logical - Iranian missiles "Shahab" fly up to the boundary of Israel and even to Nathanza, where nuclear facilities are located. Meanwhile the Foreign Minister of Iran declares at a press conference in the UN that "Iran excludes the possibility of armed attacks on the part of the USA and Israel, as well as any other military operations in its region till January 2009." Such rumours are periodically circulated in Mass Media, increasing fear of the market to face instability in the area of the Persian Gulf and pushing up the price for oil.

Foreign Minister of Iran motivates his position with the view that Israel has not yet recovered from the invasion into Lebanon in 2006. "And the US cannot afford another war at the expense of its tax-payers," Mottaki declares. At the same time the diplomat notes that the sanctions applied by the Security Council have in no way blown up the defensive potential of the country, though they called the country to break cooperation with Tehran. "Our country is all-sufficient on the military-defensive level," underlines Mottaki.

The FM of Tehran also assures he will soon consider the promising suggestions of the "Big Six" of international mediators to regulate the nuclear problem in Iran. He is sure that the document empoweres his country to use atom for peaceful purposes.

In his turn Oil Minister of Iran Gholam Hossein Nozari declares: "The price for oil will boost in case of aggression against Iran. Any attempt of attack on Iran will be met strictly. Even a statement on the possibility of aggression can provoke fluctuations of oil price with amplitude of $10-15. But in case Iran is attacked the price for the "black gold" will become unpredictable," Nozari is certain.

"Security of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which passes 80% of the oil mined in the area of the Persian Gulf, is under the responsibility of the region's countries. And Iran, being the regional power-holder, plays a key role in this area," the Oil Minister states.

"Relations between the United States and Iran should be viewed in diplomatic, military and economic aspects," declares Richard Giragosian, Contributing analyst at Jane's Information Group. "After the 9/11 the American-Iranian relations entered a new stage. The United States launched a campaign against Taliban, which served Iran's purpose. However, the war on terrorism drew Iran into the "axis of evil." The U.S. inaccurate control over the post-war Iraq helped Iran to grow into a regional power-holder. As to Iran's nuclear program, it is a matter of national dignity and response to the nuclear threat from Israel and, quite possibly, from Pakistan and India too."

Discussing a possible U.S. attack on Iran, the American expert says, "It will be inefficient and unproductive. The American army is over-occupied with Iraq and Afghanistan and its technical facilities are limited. But the most important factor is that, in case of aggression, pro-governmental and pro-oppositional forces of Iran will unite in defense of their homeland."

"Presently the U.S. position is to prevent Iran's influence over Iraq, which becomes especially apparent in the delivery of weapons to Shiites by "Hezbollah," Giragosian considers. "At the same time, the Iranian factor is a serious challenge for the U.S.-Russia relations. Washington is arriving at a conclusion that she'd better talk to Iran rather than threaten her. However the President's administration is not ready for such steps. I am hopeful that with coming to power, Barack Obama will change the U.S. attitude toward Iran," notes Giragosian.

"As for Armenia it has a unique chance to become a bridge between Iran on the one hand and the U.S. and EU on the other. Azerbaijan cannot be viewed on this level, since it experiences problems with Iran. This perspective is of great importance to Armenian and the Armenian authorities should seize the opportunity," Giragosian concludes.