Are Co-Chairs laying the cards on the table?

PanARMENIAN.Net - The fact that Bryza made this statement neither in Yerevan nor in Baku, but in Moscow especially, suggests that the Co-Chairs are already fed up with the endless repetition of one and the same line of events and they have decided to put the cards on the table. In spite of his modest position Deputy Assistant Secretary of State has rather an influential role in the State Department and, as a rule, he says what neither Condoleezza Rice nor Daniel Fried can speak of. It is quite probable that before the Presidential Elections of Azerbaijan the mediators, as well as all the parties concerned should be stirred from the dead point of conflict settlement. Roughly speaking, Ilham Aliyev will have to sign a certain document. In exchange he may be promised absence of criticism on the elections, which, irrespective of energy supply, cannot be considered free and democratic. But here a question rises: "What will Armenia be faced with?" Naturally the problem of 5 or 7 regions and return of refugees will come to the fore. However, in reply Armenia can demand back the regions of Shahumian and Getashen, as well as Artsvashen that was disgracefully conveyed to Azerbaijan in 1993. Thus, territorial claims of Nagorno-Karabakh are rather many.

Baku's reaction to the U.S. diplomat's statement was not something unexpected. "The referendum on defining the Nagorno-Karabakh status in the territory of the Azerbaijani Republic is possible only in 15-20 years' time. These processes can be implemented only after liberation of the seven occupied regions and after return of the Azeri refugees and forcedly displaced people to their permanent residence," declared Novruz Mammadov, Head of President's administration international relations department. Note that Bryza made no mention of refugees, but the Azeri agitation and propaganda department could not do without it.

However we should not forget that the U.S. policy towards Azerbaijan has changed, especially since the beginning of the year. The Republican Party may lose in the elections and democrat Barack Obama may be elected a new U.S. president, who, preserving the main priorities, would treat foreign developments more sufficiently. It concerns the Caucasus too, not to mention Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan. In fact, Matthew Bryza has nothing to lose - it is almost unlikely that under a new administration he will remain in the Department of State, but who knows? As for Azerbaijani energy supply, Europe needs it more than America does. However, Europe decides almost nothing in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation. The issues of Azerbaijani oil and gas are rather problematic too. For years official conferences have been held on defining the status of the Caspian, from where Baku has been drawing oil. The status not defined, Turkmenistan and Iran have been repeatedly accusing Baku of appropriating the oil stations.

And what if everyone is bored with the warlike statements of Ilham Aliyev, with blackmail and threats against the world community? After all, the states of the Southern Caucasus are not so powerful as to dictate the world what to do and how to do. They are too dependent on dozens of external factors: Azerbaijan - on oil price, Georgia - on NATO, Armenia - on her neighbours and isolation risk. Even Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, which boast much more oil than Baku does, are unable to impose their will on the world powers. The only exceptions are Iran and Libya, with some stipulations though. However, the thing is not even in the dictatorship of world powers but in the reality; the potential of state stability has never been dependent on oil. The latter is not a minor factor, but it is among many others, such as faithfulness to authentic human values and democracy. It is what Azerbaijan presently lacks and the time for its acquisition is still a question.

Bryza's statement can hardly be assessed as a diplomatic slipup. Most likely it is an intentional "pour-out" in anticipation of response from the conflicting parties, namely Baku and Stepanakert. In the current phase observations of Official Yerevan are superfluous.