The Caucasus platform of Turkey may cause new conflicts

PanARMENIAN.Net - However, this plan has lots of defects: two countries, which according to Prime Minister of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan should form a union, are in rather problematic relations with their neighbours. Armenia and Georgia are the two countries mentioned. Georgia set the region, as well as the whole world on the brink of war, definitely knowing that it would end up "in a draw". In spite of Saakashvili's calls for peace and friendship, presently no one regards the Georgian President as a sober person and a reliable partner. In fact, with his «five-day war» Saakashvili tripped up Azerbaijan and Turkey, which used to rely on the profit from the Baku-Tbilisi-Jeihan oil-pipeline, as well as on Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas line. Not to mention that in case Kars-Gyumri railway is reconstructed, it becomes useless to build the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars line, construction of this line being useless from the economic point of view, not to mention the underlying political motives. Even if the railway line is built, it may stand idle for the most part, since it passes through risky areas of Turkey, where the militants of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) act.

As for Armenia, the situation is much more serious here: absence of relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. And if lately there has been laid grounds for a dialogue with Ankara, which, by the way, will not necessarily result in the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border, the situation is much more difficult with Baku. Armenian-Azerbaijani relations will hardly be normalized within the next 10-15 years, though officials from the USA and Russia are pressing for it. At least the Azerbaijani press is already circulating news on Turkey being the only substitute for the OSCE Minsk Group on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation.

The Azerbaijani Mass Media also considers that the mediatory mission of Ankara will have a better effect than the seventeen years' activity of the Minsk Group. "Abdullah Gul's initiative on regulating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is fully supported by both Russia and the USA. Turn of events of the past few days shows that Turkey is able to substitute the whole Minsk Group, which has been unsuccessfully engaged in the process of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation for 17 years," Bakiliar.AZ informs.

Moreover, the Turkish President openly declares that Armenia is ready to withdraw its troops from the safety area of Nagorno-Karabakh. The presence of Armenian troops in the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh is past Gul and Aliyev's comprehension. In fact, the safety area is controlled by the NKR Army and the whole world, including the co-chairs, knows about it. However, the opposite side believes that it is more suitable to distort the reality, just like they keep reminding about the 20% of the "captured" Azerbaijani territory, which, in reality, is 13% and is the land of Nagorno-Karabakh. Anyway, it is the problem of Ilham Aliyev, and, perhaps, that of Gul's.

The Caucasus platform has another substantial defect too - it has no place for Iran. In principle, Iran can have no place in this platform, since the Ottoman and the Persian Empires were constantly at war with each other and Iran's joining the union, in case it is formed, is simply impossible. The pro-Turkey position of the USA is another reason why Iran cannot join the platform.

Yet, in short perspective, i.e. before regulation of Russia-West opposition, the Caucasus platform may become a reality. However, it will be incapable of taking decisive steps, such as regulation of conflicts in the Caucasus, and prevention of new ones.