Are Co-Chairs laying the cards on the table?

Bryza's statement can hardly be assessed as a diplomatic slipup. Most likely it is an intentional "pour-out" in anticipation of response from the conflicting parties, namely Baku and Stepanakert.

August 2, 2008
After the meeting between the Armenian and Azeri Foreign Ministers in Moscow, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State and Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group Matthew Bryza issued a really sensational statement. "Nagorno-Karabakh residents will decide for themselves whether the republic will return under the Azeri control or it will be recognized independent. There will be held a referendum for the people of Nagorno-Karabakh to express their will," Bryza told the journalists.

A new U.S. Ambassador is arriving in Yerevan two years after John Evans was recalled

Most likely the U.S. Armenian Community and Hay Dat have been satisfied with Marie Yovanovitch and the State Department's claims that a "Great massacre" occurred in 1915.

July 31, 2008
The U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations has approved of Marie Yovanovitch's candidacy as the U.S. Ambassador to Armenia. Senators approved the candidacy after the U.S. State Department had given written answers to the question on mass killings of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey during the World War I. The Committee confirmed the nomination by roll call, with Senator Boxer going against it. Final decision on the Ambassador's nomination will be announced on the August session of the Senate. Marie Yovanovitch is to give a final approval.

Turkey is on the verge of collapse, from which it may never recover

Hearings in the Constitutional Court demonstrate the strength of the Turkish secular forces, which used to rely on the military support.

July 29, 2008
Once again Turkey experiences a great shock. Detention of the "Ergenekon" members and hearings in the Constitutional Court on outlawing the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) were concluded by the twin explosions in Istanbul. The situation is becoming scary for the AKR, taking into consideration the fact that terrorist attacks may repeat themselves. The other day Prime-Minister Recep Erdo?an stated that the possibility of special Parliamentary Elections was not excluded, thus implying that the Constitutional Court might ban the Party.

Georgia carries out a systematic policy of wiping out Armenians from Javakhk

Tbilisi cannot but understand that Azerbaijan and Turkey have implemented a policy of destructing and excluding Armenians if not from the region, then, at least, from the enclaves and places of dense habitation.

July 26, 2008
Once again the situation in Javakhk has become strained. Yet again Armenia finds excuses through appropriate formulations of the kind: RA Foreign Ministry closely watches the situation in Javakhk. No one knows what is really going on, and yet people die; Armenians of Javakhk are on the edge of complete eviction. It means the Turkish-Azerbaijani forces have gained control of the northern border of Armenia too.

Azerbaijan spends its oil dollars on buying weapons

The Azerbaijani authorities, who keep declaring their military superiority over Armenia, realize that without Turkey's military assistance they will be unable to try to "restore control" over the territories bordering to Nagorno-Karabakh.

July 24, 2008
Russian magazine Moscow Defense Brief published the list of reported deliveries of military equipment to Azerbaijan in 2000-2007. Whatever we say, the list is rather impressive and it seems as though Azerbaijan is going to fight against the whole region. Shortly after the publication Defense Minister of Azerbaijan hurried to disclaim the statement, naturally, shifting the blame onto the «Armenian intrigues».

Severe struggle has started in the region for the position of regional power-holder

Iran does not look around in her foreign policy, like Turkey, and contributes to regulation of conflicts and controversial issues in the region.

July 22, 2008
In all probability severe struggle has begun in the region for the position of regional power-holder. Candidates are two - Iran and Turkey. Stakes are high - exclusion of the USA and Russia from the region and establishment of "personal order" the way Iran or Turkey picture it. Iran has a more favourable position in the competition. First, Tehran has oil and gas, which Turkey lacks. Moreover, according to explored and confirmed data Iran has the forth standing in the world.

USA can make Gul arrive in Yerevan and have Aliyev sign a treaty of peace with Nagorno Karabakh

If Turkey agrees to negotiations, which will lead to normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations and result in opening of the border, Baku will lose its sole ally.

July 19, 2008
To all appearances American diplomacy in the South Caucasus produced the first results: negotiations on the probable normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations launched, secretly though. As usual, information leak is traced to the Turkish press, which once more convinces countries of the region of the fact that, in spite of all her statements on her right to implement her own policy, Ankara obeys the USA.

GUAM is surviving on Azerbaijan and on ambitions of Mikhail Saakashvili

As if agreed, Azerbaijan and Georgia are acting almost synchronically in the issues of conflict settlement.

July 17, 2008
Under the approaching energy crisis, connected with the rapid rise in prices for oil and gas, as well as with economic recession in the West, the GUAM countries decided to revive their political activity, introducing a resolution on "frozen conflicts" into the UN. It was naturally done on the advice of Azerbaijan, which plays a key role in the organization thanks to its raw material resources. Georgia and Ukraine may serve as energy-transit countries, while Moldova… Things are a bit different with Moldova.

Do Armenian organizations in the U.S.A. delay their approval of U.S. Ambassador to Armenia?

Interests of the U.S.A. depend on more important issues rather than the recognition of "Great massacre" as genocide, which would urge Washington to reconsider her foreign policy.

July 15, 2008
It is rather difficult to predict the results of the U.S. Senate's voting on the candidacy of U.S. Ambassador to Armenia Marie Yovanovitch. If we share the viewpoint of the Armenian Community in the U.S.A. in the person of the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA), under the current Administration Armenia has no chances to have a U.S. Ambassador. "We remain troubled by Yovanovitch's evasive answers and her absolute refusal to offer anything approaching a reasonable or factually supportable explanation of the reasons behind Administration's misguided policy on the Armenian Genocide," declared Aram Hamparian, Executive Director of the ANCA.

How likely is a new war in the Caucasus?

Georgia and Russia are exchanging assaults, thus increasing the threat of war in the region.

July 12, 2008
On July 10 Georgia recalled its ambassador Erosi Kitsmarishvili from Russia to discuss recent developments in the Republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. According to Georgia's Foreign Minister Yekaterina Tkeshelashvili, this move of Russia exposed the latter's demonstrative approach and political attitude towards issues of international law, as well as international security and stability. The Ambassador was recalled immediately after the Russian Air Force sent aircraft flying over South Ossetia to "defuse the situation in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone", the RF Foreign Ministry explains.
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