Unsuccessful blitzkrieg or strength trial?

The Turkish sudden actions gave birth to a number of questions among which the most important one is whether or not Iraq is a sovereign state. If yes, which were Turkey's grounds for invasion of the territory of the independent state?

March 4, 2008
The Turkish army's actions in Northern Iraq obviously didn't bring the anticipated results. The negative reaction from the part of the USA followed it immediately. In fact, the Secretary of Defense Robert Gates demanded that the Turkish troops are withdrawn from the regions of Northern Iraq. The Turkish Joint Staff had to justify itself mentioning that "the blood of a
Turkish soldier is more valuable than the military operation." It is clear, that the Kurdistan Workers Party is a trouble not for Turkey and Iraq only, but also for Kurdistan itself. In any case, this is what the Prime Minister of Kurdistan Nechirvan Barzani attempts to show.

Azerbaijan once again tries to interfere in the domestic affairs of Armenia

There is a hope that the European institutions have already got used to such "statements" and simply ignore them.

February 28, 2008
We are already used to nervous response of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan to all that is going on in Armenia, and it was simply impossible for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan to leave the elections of the new president of Armenia unnoticed. It is quite clear that Baku and Turkey are completely disappointed with the results of the elections; Levon Ter-Petrosyan didn't win in the elections, which means that all the hopes of the press and officials are destroyed. That is why some immediate measures should have been taken, even if it was only coming up with an announcement, which was done in a very typical way.

The independence of Kosovo leads to the global war against the mother country

The declaration of independence of Kosovo may lead to similar moods in South Caucasus and in the most successful countries in Western Europe.

February 16, 2008
Europe is going to face big upheavals. Kosovo, after all, has decided to declare its independence with the support of the USA and some EU member countries. One-sided declaration of Kosovo independence is both inevitable and inadmissible. The EU has split into different parts: Cyprus, Spain, Bulgaria, Greece, Slovakia and Romania for some inner reasons spoke against the independence of the province. France, Great Britain, Germany and Italy, that is to say, the countries practicing the US policy in Europe are for the declaration of the sovereignty of the province.

Goble's plan on Karabakh problem still remains the object of fierce discussions

There are two versions of the plan; "Goble-1" and "Goble-2". The first version was approved and encouraged by the Administration of George Bush already in January 1992. "Goble-2" emerged in 1996.

February 14, 2008
For 20 years since the beginning of the Karabakh conflict many suggestions have been made for its resolution. As a rule, all of them were based on one soul idea, according to which the both parties should work towards reaching a compromise to come to a peaceful agreement. The plan of the American politician Paul Goble is among the so-called "compromise settlements". However, Goble's plan remained only a plan, since it included an argument, which, according to a western mind was totally irrational. "Own lands" mustn't be given up to the enemy or it would be the same as to stop being a representative of your own nation.

In Munich Erdoghan demanded that Turkey is integrated into the EU

Turkey vigorously rejects the compromise in the form of the status of a privileged partner, which was suggested particularly by Germany.

February 12, 2008
During the 44th conference on security policy issues held in Munich the problems of NATO's functioning and the prospect of its expansion, the issues of disarmament, nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, the calls of the European security, the situation in Afghanistan and prospective of its resolution, the basic course of development of Russia, and the issues of security in Asia were discussed. Much attention was focused particularly to the discussion of the Kosovo issue, Iranian nuclear program, Turkey's European course, and its policy in the field of security.

Turkey spoke against GDF's participation in the project "Nabucco" because of the Armenian Genocide

If the founder countries do not manage to agree with all the countries of the region, the projects "Nabucco" and "South Stream" will never be realized.

February 9, 2008
The EU is starting a new geopolitical project called "Nabucco" which according to the EU and the USA will decrease the dependence on Russian gas and on Russia in general. The project itself is immense; the general size is about 3.3 thousand km and the maximum carrying capacity is assessed 31 milliard cubic meters (bcm) a year. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Egypt and even Iraq are among the possible gas purveyors for the future pipeline. It is presumed that "Nabucco's" route will be Turkey-Bulgaria-Romania-Hungary-Austria and with some estimation it will cost minimum 4.6 milliard EUR.

Victor Zubkov's visit is of both Armenia's and Russia's interest and it should be regarded from this very point of view

Moscow's fears regarding the expansion of the region by the USA and NATO are completely justified; however the expansion is carried out just as it used to be in the times of the USSR; i.e. the main aim was to scare the "partner" as much as possible or to

February 7, 2008
The visit of Russia's Prime Minister Victor Zubkov to Armenia on the eve of the elections gave rise to a lot of conjecture about its aim and outcomes, and it is mostly believed that the aim of the visit is the one - supporting Serge Sargsyan in the Presidential elections. At least this is what the Armenian Mass Media believes, however missing one very important detail; it is not the Russian, but the Armenian citizen who is going to vote. In this regard the support from the outside has always had the opposite effect on any candidate's reputation.

It is quite possible that South Caucasus stands closer to the EU than to Turkey

The countries of South Caucasus are more dependent on the external factors and on the influence of the world powers and international institutions than Turkey.

February 5, 2008
The opening of the new EU representation in Armenia is one more step on its way to further consolidation of EU position in South Caucasus. These countries are of great importance for the EU, and this importance is still growing as Russia's standings in the region get weaker. It is no secret any longer that Europe needs Russia exceptionally in the sphere of energy, though this very factor is used to get much freedom in political planning, especially in the countries having unsolved conflicts.

"Privileged partnership" with the EU doesn't suit Turkey

Turkey staked out a claim on integration into the EU 45 years ago. However, no one knows yet how long it will take to allow Ankara's claims; in any case a couple of long years should definitely be taken into consideration.

February 2, 2008
The latest statement made by Nicola Sarkozy and Angel Merkel regarding Turkey's possibility of integration into the EU, was naturally not something new or unexpected, in any case for the President of France. "Turkey may have no place in the EU with the reason, that it is situated in Asia Minor. If we keep on continually broadening the EU, in this way we will destroy the political Europe," emphasized the French President. One of the most interesting things in the statement is that the Europeans "suddenly" found out that from geographic point of view (not to mention the political point of view) Turkey is not at all a European country.

The international recognition of Kosovo's independence is of Armenia's benefit

The resolution of the issue of Kosovo's independence should be postponed for undefined period so that the representatives of Serbia and Kosovo are able to reach understanding and a general consensus.

January 31, 2008
Most probably the Kosovo issue is close to its completion. The Kosovo Albanians are in a hurry and one of the reasons may be considered the upcoming Presidential elections in Russia and the USA. Another reason for it is that Kosovo fears that the EU will change its positions. The truth is, that the government of the territory and the NATO representatives have finally agreed upon the action plan after the scheduled declaration of independence of the Serbian province. However, as the experts warn, the declaration of independence may cause war.
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