Ratification of Armenian-Turkish protocols can raise possibility of new war in Karabakh

April 2, 2010 - 15:44 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net - Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan is likely to meet with his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama in Washington. This meeting will offer the U.S. President a chance to avoid using the term Genocide in his April 24 address to the Armenian community, said Kiro Manoyan, ARF Dashnaktsutyun Bureau’s Hay Dat and Political Affairs Office director.

“Erdogan knows that his refusal to take part in the impending Nuclear Security Summit will bring more pressure on Turkey. So, he will go to the U.S. to try to prevent recognition of the Armenian Genocide by Mr. Obama,” he said. “The U.S. is interested in normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. With ratification of protocols, it will relieve the burden of Woodrow Wilson’s arbitration award.”

As to Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement, Mr. Manoyan said no progress is expected. “War is possible on two cases: if Azerbaijan is confident of victory and if Turkey sacrifices Azerbaijan’s interests for reconciliation with Armenia. At that, ratification of protocols can raise the possibility of a new war in Karabakh,” he said.

The conflict between Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan

The conflict between Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan broke out as result of the ethnic cleansing launched by the Azeri authorities in the final years of the Soviet Union. The Karabakh War was fought from 1991 (when the Nagorno Karabakh Republic was proclaimed) to 1994 (when a ceasefire was sealed by Armenia, NKR and Azerbaijan). Most of Nagorno Karabakh and a security zone consisting of 7 regions are now under control of NKR defense army. Armenia and Azerbaijan are holding peace talks mediated by the OSCE Minsk Group up till now.

The Armenian-Turkish Protocols

The Protocols aimed at normalization of bilateral ties and opening of the border between Armenia and Turkey were signed in Zurich by Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian and his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu on October 10, 2009, after a series of diplomatic talks held through Swiss mediation.

On January 12, 2010, the Constitutional Court of the Republic of Armenia found the protocols conformable to the country’s Organic Law.

Commenting on the CC ruling, the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that “it contains preconditions and restrictive provisions which impair the letter and spirit of the Protocols.” ”The decision undermines the very reason for negotiating these Protocols as well as their fundamental objective. This approach cannot be accepted on our part. Turkey, in line with its accustomed allegiance to its international commitments, maintains its adherence to the primary provisions of these Protocols. We expect the same allegiance from the Armenian government,” the Ministry said.