Will Baku venture upon war on eve of Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting in Kazan?

 June 1, 2011 - 21:12 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net - “As the Kazan meeting approaches, the stakes are raised for both peace and war in the Caucasus,” expert Thomas de Waal wrote in an article published by National Interest.

The Presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia – Serzh Sargsyan, Ilham Aliyev and Dmitry Medvedev - are slated to meet in June in the Russian city of Kazan, the next in a series of trilateral meetings on the Karabakh conflict settlement.

There are certain expectations with respect to the meeting, taking into consideration the Deaville statement adopted by the leaders of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chair countries, who said “the time has arrived for all the sides to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to take a decisive step towards a peaceful settlement.”

The statement also reads that “further delay [in the settlement] would only call into question the commitment of the sides to reach an agreement.”

According to Thomas de Waal, it will be tough to construct a joint postconflict settlement for Karabakh. “This will be especially important if the framework plan is agreed and there comes the inevitable hiatus between an initial agreement and progress on the ground. The spoilers will rush in to try to destroy it,” he said.

Judging from the established situation, the Azerbaijani leadership can be understood among “the spoilers,” as it needs a war in Karabakh to keep power and does not conceal this, continuously threatening with resumption of hostilities in Karabakh. Thus, a peaceful settlement of the conflict is not within the plans of Baku and Azerbaijan may try to destroy it.

However, the Deaville statement indicates that Obama, Medvedev and Sarkosy have taken into consideration also this possibility: “The use of force created the current situation of confrontation and instability. Its use again would only bring more suffering and devastation, and would be condemned by the international community.

Thus, even if Aliyev ventures upon a war without permission of the superpowers, they will not stand on the sidelines. And due to the recent developments in Middle East, specifically, the ouster of undesirable leaders there, Aliyev cannot but understand that should he launch a war in Karabakh to keep his post, he may be deprived of it very soon.