Who will remain leader in the region?

PanARMENIAN.Net - Confrontation of the opposition and the spiritual power, which may cost Iran a revolution and even a collapse, may extend for longer period of time, but no more than a year. Accusations of the West and first of all the USA in weakening the country will play their role for the time being. If opposition, at first glance somewhat alienated, is able to unite, it will put the beginning of a new Iran. By the way it is not necessary at all that this new Iran arise as a result of a civil war, although ethnic disturbances in this poly-ethnic country will be unavoidable.

However, all is not so simple: Iran plays rather an important role in the system of the Great Near East, and the future of the region depends on what track the country will further choose. Roughly speaking - the matter is who will be the leader: the intentionally vanished Turkey or the new Iran? Let us note that the President of Turkey has not yet congratulated Ahmadinejad on re-election, though, logically, he was supposed to. Turkey waits, and the future behaviour of Mir Hossein Mousavi depends on how the events will develop. In any case, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmet Davutoglu is to conduct negotiations in Moscow. For Turkey and, naturally, for Azerbaijan, the candidature of Mousavi is more pleasing, even on the basis of purely ethnic considerations. As it is known Mousavi is Azerbaijani, though it is necessary to note that Iranian Azerbaijanis treat their northern "brothers" with indifference. The only point is that Mousavi will carry out a more open policy and it is what gives him power today.

The plans of reformists suit also Israel, which is truly interested in calm and predictable Iran that does not threaten to wipe the Jewish state off the face of the earth. Though it might be assumed that statements of Ahmadinejad are only schema, called to prove that Iran can do in the region what it finds necessary, but in any case, it is never pointless to play safe. Most likely, for this very reason Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya'alon predicts the unrest in Iran will lead to a full revolution in the Islamic Republic. "Since I was head of Military Intelligence, I have said, and I say it again now, that some 70 percent of Iranians are opposed to the ayatollah regime," Ya'alon said, according to the Jerusalem Post. "Opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife have brought a new spirit of openness, and so I repeat -- there will be a revolution in Iran. It's impossible to hide the energy there now, and the Iranian regime is going to have to take that into consideration. What is happening now will not change the nuclear issue, but it is still an encouraging development for the West... It's a confrontation between Jihadists and the West," Ya'alon said, Israeli media outlets report.

He also declared, "There must be a sprout of change alongside the dialogue. This is also what the Sunni Muslims are telling the Americans, 'Be careful not to hold talks with Iran at our expense'. I still cannot see the sprout, and if there is not sprout, then the dialogue will be a waste and will work against us."

Meanwhile, British newspaper The Guardian reported that Iranian reformist leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi began marching towards the Interior Ministry, accompanied by 10,000 demonstrators. The report came from sources the newspaper defined as "credible". In the regions crowded with demonstrators intensive police units and members of the militarized pro-government militia "Basij" were deployed. Members of the Ahmadinejad police are armed with knives and metallic rods, which means there is still blood to be shed on the streets of Tehran. Whether Ali Khamenei will be able to stop the unavoidable bloodshed, and how Tehran will live after it, is open to question.

In general, Presidential Elections gave birth to a number of questions, to which as yet there is no answer in view of the absence of any information about the processes, which take place in parallel in the world, enveloped by destructive tendencies. Against the general background thus far appears unclear the position of Russia, one of the central players in the Near East, attempting to preserve in the Islamic world her positions lost after the collapse of the USSR. And finally, how serious are the reasons for the Armenia Parliament Speaker's visit to Iran against the background of recent developments?

Karine Ter-Sahakyan