Moscow and Ankara negotiate on South Stream project

PanARMENIAN.Net - Whether these conditions are accepted or not is no longer very important, since in the final analysis Europe needs gas, and Russia is after levers of pressure and retention of certain regional political control that has become somewhat weaker after the August war in South Ossetia. As for Turkey, which is considered to be the strategic ally of the USA, she can somewhat change its orientation and establish relations with Moscow on almost the same principles. But there is a delicate point here: as long as American troops are stationed in Iraq, the USA depends on Ankara, and the latter successfully makes use of it. Russia has no such problems, and Ankara in this case has no grounds for blackmail. However, there is one issue that will sure be discussed during the talks: the Armenian-Turkish relations, along with Karabakh. And here the behavior of Russia can either draw the solution of old problems nearer or send them into a final deadlock. Being acquainted with the inflexibility of the Russian foreign policy and its adherence to the Soviet school of diplomacy renowned for 'turning over' a problem, the second version is more predictable.

In this regard rather noteworthy is the weird reaction of Azeri political scientists to the visit of Putin. According to Baku, after leaving Ankara Putin will almost order Armenia to return the liberated territories around Nagorno Karabakh and forget about the Armenian Genocide. It is quite logical that this version is pleasing for Baku, but it is not yet clear whether Turkey and Russia will be pleased with it. Armenia's position is clear: if the Soviet regime was unable to get Turkey to speak of the Armenian Genocide, today's Russia has no chances at all. The same is true about Karabakh conflict regulation. Quite amazingly Baku political analysts first make "forecasts" and later they do not even explain why these "forecasts" did not prove correct. Neither is comprehensible the feeling of euphoria caused by the visit of the Russian premier to Ankara. The essential thing for the RF to do now is to preserve the dependence of Europe on the Russian gas, while all the remaining problems can be solved after an agreement on the pipeline.

For the present, Moscow and Ankara are negotiating on the South Stream project, which is going to be a strong competitor for Nabucco. The intrigue of the visit is whether Putin will be able to persuade Erdoğan and what he will propose as compensation. Neither Armenia, nor Azerbaijan can change maps in this dispute, in view of their insignificance. Putin is well aware of Baku hydrocarbons quantity and of the dispute over the Caspian Sea. Moreover, it can even be assumed that if Turkmenistan really turns to the International Court of Justice apropos of Azerbaijan's seizure of the deposits in the Caspian Sea, Russia would be more likely to support Ashgabat.

Though the Turkish authorities have already given their consent to the construction of the gas pipe in the territorial waters in the Black Sea, South Stream will have to pass, also, through the territorial waters of the Ukraine, whose permission, putting it mildly, would be difficult to get. On the agenda is also the project "Blue Stream-2". In the opinion of Turkish experts, gas and petroleum projects will ensure important geopolitical dividends for Turkey and through them the country will obtain a voting right in the world issues of oil and natural gas supply.

Turkey and Russia are also going to sign a protocol on the use of atomic energy for peaceful purposes. The tender for the construction of the first Turkish nuclear power plant in the city of Mersin on the Mediterranean coast, Russian companies won back in September 2008. The project includes the construction of four power units with the capacity of 1,200 megawatts each, the first of which will be operational in 2015. However, until now no agreement has been reached on financing of the project. Seven out of twenty billion dollars is already ready, while the rest will have to be "gathered from the market".

Another important project is the pipeline with the capacity of about 1,5 million barrels per day to transport oil from the Turkish Black Sea port of Samsun to Ceyhan on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey. The pipeline, through which oil will be supplied from Turkey to European markets, will bypass the congested straits of Bosporus and Dardanelles and will greatly ease the transportation of Russian oil. Turkish authorities have repeatedly invited Russia to participate in this project. But the project was started two years ago by Italian and Turkish companies. Specifically because of this Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi participated in negotiations.