Thus far Moscow outnumbers Washington in levers of pressure

PanARMENIAN.Net - However, let us not forget, that the Obama-Medvedev meeting was preceded by the Moscow visit of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, after which the Armenian-Turkish relations again came to the fore, this time without coordination with the Karabakh conflict regulation. The turn of Turkish policy is notable but it didn't originate out of nowhere. After the under oath promises of Erdogan in Baku, assuring that Turkey would never leave her "brothers" face to face with the Armenians, in the Turkish society there began to sound somewhat different statements. As it is customary in the whole world, the need for the quickest restoration of diplomatic relations with Armenia was voiced by diplomats, who "wished to remain unnamed". At the same time, as if in unison with it, sounded the statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia Edward Nalbandyan, who assured that the Armenian-Turkish negotiations had not ceased even for a minute; moreover, they continued at full speed.

What is going on in the region and especially in Armenia shows that the USA and Russia seriously fight for the position of the leader. No matter how hard Baku tries to present herself in the role of the key player, she cannot succeed. By the way, the possible appointment of Mathew Bryza to the post of the Ambassador to Azerbaijan does not speak in favor of Baku either. Now Russia has more chances of getting the winner's place in the struggle, for the latter outnumbers America in levers of pressure, the most important of them being the notorious project of Nabucco, whose route, until now, is not finally fixed. Neither is it determined who is going to fill the pipe with gas, since by buying up almost all the Azerbaijani gas Russia sent Nabucco onto the verge of disappearance both as an economic and political project. Let us recall that Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan was truly a political project and even now it brings no profit. But it is realized, and Turkey together with Azerbaijan have trumps in the regional game. The situation is more complicated with the gas pipe: Georgia falls out of any project because of her instability; no one wants to deal with the post-election Iran. Remain only Turkey and Russia, the latter trying to foil the gas pipe into Europe at any cost. And it is exactly where the struggle for Armenia begins, this fight bearing an exceptionally pragmatic character. Is Armenia able to become the country, through which it is worthwhile to pull a gas pipe. In a word, nothing personal. It's only business.

As far as the methods of pressure on Turkey are concerned, they are rather many in Moscow. Let us name only one of them - the Kars agreement, which can be taken out onto the table of the Armenian-Turkish negotiations any minute. Moreover, Russia can blackmail Ankara for denunciation of the treaty. It would be almost deadly for Turkey: there immediately appear related problems like Ajaria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Armenian issue appears to be the most easily solvable. The USA hurries Turkey and again, for the same reason, either peace or a second Iraq-Afghanistan is necessary in the region. There is no third option for the USA for the simple reason that "Byzantine games" are alien to Democrats. America may engage in another conflict. Surely, it won't be one like that of the Near East or Afghanistan, but enough for the countries of the South Caucasus. And there is no confidence whatever in the fact that someone will come off clear unless Moscow once again is able to achieve a certain positive result. The trouble is that Moscow is no longer what it used to be before the Chechen war. Neither is the USA under Barack Obama the same as the America under George Bush Senior. And no matter how hard Obama tries to make his country more attractive for Moscow, he achieves no results. And the Medvedev-Obama meeting demonstrated it best: not a single serious document was signed at it. Well, the Memorandum of Understanding cannot really be considered a serious agreement. But the fact is that it was the only product of Obama's two-day visit. At least, it was so for the community that was obviously waiting for something significant and weighty. Apparently, behind the scenes remained also the agreed arrangements on the Armenian-Turkish negotiations, the Karabakh conflict settlement and Iran. Generalizations on ABM, START and Afghanistan are all on the paper. The only thing Obama managed to do in Moscow was the understanding on the transit of military freight through the territory of Russia. It is a very modest success against the background of the widely advertised visit, isn't it? But, by the way, even that might not have occured, so the USA can still boast. And all the talks on "reload" and the hopes of Mikhail Saakashvili remained only good intentions. However, so it had to be. In politics, when the rates are too high, it is senseless to hurry. You can still succeed in bluffing but you shouldn't try…