Who in the region can benefit from opening the Check-Point "Upper Lars"?

PanARMENIAN.Net - However, in the opinion of Expert on Economic issues Gia Khukhashvili, Georgia's interests are not taken into account in re-opening the checkpoint "Kazbegi" (that's how the Upper Lars is called in Tbilisi); with this decision Georgia only helps others.

"Against opening of Zemo Larsi, the Georgian side should have laid down her conditions and defended her interests to the maximum. In particular, opening of the checkpoint would fit the Georgian side if the Russian market opened for Georgian products. It would then simplify the shift of Georgian people. As far as Russian embargo is imposed on Georgian products, and a visa regime works for Georgian citizens, opening of the checkpoint will work only in one direction - for Armenia, and will be less effective for economic and social sectors of Georgia. In general, I am not against the opening of Zemo Larsi, but taking into account that in this case the interest of Georgia is nil and the Georgian side has not demanded adequate steps against the opening of Lars, of course I cannot welcome it," declared Khukhashvili, Civil.ge reports.

By and large, nobody really cares whether Upper Lars will fully operate or not, apart from Armenia, who really needs the road. But how badly we need it and how it will work is not clear, if we take into account that we'll still have to pay Georgia, or perhaps Russia too, for the transit of goods. Thus, the economic benefits for Armenia, to put it mildly, are not substantial. But all this, let us repeat ourselves, is a purely political game, the main participants of which - the South Caucasus countries - estimate it theoretically and view it as inevitable.

We can presume the following scenario, which, though not very likely, still exists as a hypothesis: Russia and Turkey have agreed that the latter should exert pressure on Georgia in regard to opening the checkpoint. In exchange, Russia will help Turkey, at least in the Turkish-Iranian relations. Of course, she cannot help in the Armenian-Turkish relations; nobody in the world can. When the U.S., European, and Russian officials say that the border problem should be resolved by the states themselves, it is perceived as a kind of evasion. But it is the reality, and it is also true about the Karabakh conflict settlement. Anyone can be a mediator, but final agreement is up to Stepanakert and Baku.

And what would give this possible scenario to Turkey herself? Practically nothing, except for some political advantage. The same is true about Russia. Nevertheless, the Upper Lars can serve as an example for Ankara to unlock communications. In other words, it could force Turkey to open the Armenian-Turkish border. However, not now, not even six months later. Maybe in a year, but we must take into account that now the world community has more serious problems to worry about than the Armenian-Turkish border or the Upper Lars.

The world community is now more concerned about Iran and the apparent deterioration of Turkish-Israeli relations, U.S. relations with Russia and China, the Palestinian issue, elections of the EU President and much more. However, all of the above does not mean that the Caucasus can be ignored, quite the contrary. Just it may so happen that with the regulation of a number of world problems, the Caucasus and the Middle East may come to some consensus.