Presently Turkey is in no mood for Protocols

PanARMENIAN.Net - By the way, most apparently the Turkish Parliament was not going to ratify the Protocols anyway. As always Ankara pinned its hopes on blackmail and threats, without delving into the essence of the problem. But the fact is that for Turkey the Protocols could be the only road to Europe. It was an issue of secondary importance whether Armenian-Turkish relations would be normalized. The essential point was opening of the border, but Ankara did not realize or refused to realize this importance. Detentions of military officials began just as the country’s leadership came to the conclusion that international community can no longer be influenced and it has firmly decided to push ratification of the Protocols. In case of military coup in Turkey, Armenia will get a very unpredictable and dangerous neighbor, which, by the way, has always been such. But now the danger is much greater and no one can foretell how the confrontation between the generals and the AKP will end. As a result of the possible coup, we’ll witness a new round of Kurdish-Turkish confrontation in close proximity to the Armenian border. A more detailed inspection of the situation brings up several questions, the first of them being why the coup, which was prepared in 2003, was not suppressed then. Or is it possible that the AKP had kept it “in reserve” to use in case of unexpected developments in the region? As long as Turkey was rapidly gaining weight and with the help of Russia and the United States it had a chance to really become a regional power in near future, the army had taken the government side. Or, at least, so it seemed. Moreover, the army, so true to the precepts of Kemalism, favoured Turkey’s integration into the EU. What is more, after the August war in South Ossetia, it was Turkey that revived the completely forgotten Platform of Stability in the Caucasus. And it was Turkey that for some reason decided she could settle the Karabakh conflict and become co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group.

The blame for such behavior of Ankara should be assigned to the superpowers, which hurried to declare Turkey a bridge from East to West, from Islam to Christianity. And only the French President kept to his position. According to him, there is no place for Turkey in Europe. Roughly the same happened 100 years ago, when with the support of then powers Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom the Ottoman Empire got involved in the World War I. As a result the Young Turks slaughtered almost the entire Christian population of the Empire, and these were not only Armenians, but also Greeks and Assyrians. And then Ataturk came, and Turkey began to build something of a “civilized” state, which was collapsed 50 years ago, after the first military coup. Afterwards there were three more - in 1971, 1980 and 1997. So there is nothing particularly surprising - military coups in Turkey are a custom that started with the Janissaries, who overthrew the sultan then.

They were especially the military coups that led the powers to show a more restrained attitude towards Turkey, because nobody knows what consequences next coup can have. But, be that as it may, nothing may happen this time. In the face of the threat of opening the Armenian-Turkish border, or, more specifically, in the face of the superpowers’ support for Armenia, the army will not decide on an open confrontation. But an excellent excuse is chosen for the protocols. However, Ankara should keep in mind that Armenia will not be seeking excuses for denunciation of the Protocols. According to the supplement to the “Law on international treaties” adopted the other day, the Armenian President is granted such a right. So, the future of the Protocols is rather dim. If Ankara is reluctant to obey direct signals from Washington, it means Turkey has decided she can do what she pleases. This position is fundamentally vulnerable and entails far-reaching consequences. Under the present circumstances there is nothing good for Ankara. And no matter how hard the Azeri media tries to pass the desirable for reality, the Turkish press is soberer in this sense. And when Mehmet Ali Birand writes that Turkey and Azerbaijan have found themselves in diplomatic isolation, he knows what he says.