Currently US has more chances for maneuvers on Armenian Genocide issue

PanARMENIAN.Net - On April 22, Turkey and Armenia adopted a joint statement on normalization of relations, and agreed on a new route map. At first sight, Turkey and Armenia may seem ready to set aside their disagreements and establish diplomatic ties. However, information contained in the official statement is rather restricted, American Analytical Centre experts believe.





As reported by Stratfor sources in Yerevan, the Turkish-Armenian joint statement was prompted by US State Department which wanted the two parties to make a positive public statement before April 24. This is because the progress in the Armenian-Turkish relations might give the United States more chances for maneuvers on Armenian Genocide issue.



"Such progress also enables the Turkish and Armenian governments to circumvent the issue and conduct diplomatic talks. Even though the discussion on so-called 'genocide' is of key importance for Yerevan, the Armenian officials do not take as firm a stance on the issue as does Armenia lobby in Washington, as RA government is concerned about long-term economic prospects of border opening. Nevertheless, Armenia doesn't entertain illusions that route map agreement will lead to complete normalization of Armenian-Turkish ties."





Turkey emerging as a superpower in the region. The Turks should currently conduct the negotiations under Russia's close surveillance, but if the Armenian-Turkish border is opened, Turkey may produce an impact on Yerevan too. That will make Turkey the only major superpower to maintain good relations with all the three South Caucasian states and provide Ankara with extra possibilities to fight against Russia, USA, Iran, Europe and other parties pursuing interests in the region. In the short run, Turkey will have to settle matters with its Azeri kinsmen. Ankara is aware that Turkey's only ally is Baku rather than Russia, and that Azerbaijan is against opening of border. Turkey still has a serious attitude to transactions with Armenia but makes no haste for the time being. Russians, in the meantime, want Turkey to give guarantees of non-interference in Russia's plans with regard to Eurasia," Stratfor report says.