It turns out that the Azerbaijani army is on alert to prevent any attempt of the enemy to enter their airspace. “Even the drones the Armenians launch over Karabakh are being registered. The attempts of the Armenians to operate flights prohibited in this territory will be prevented anyway. We control all processes and are ready for preventive actions at any moment. It can be done by any means, and the enemy is aware of it. The international conventions Azerbaijan has joined allow it to take actions with regard to attempts to violate the internationally recognized airspace. In fact, there is legal framework for Azerbaijan to justify its moves,” the unnamed officer declared.
It is no secret that Baku has trouble with the legal framework. A question arises - can there possibly be any international legislation that authorizes shoot-down of the civilian aircraft? There has been a similar incident once: on September 1, 1983 the Soviet interceptor SU-15 shot down Boeing 747 of Korean AirLines. All 246 passengers and 23 members of the crew of the Korean civilian airliner were killed. USSR was finally declared the “Empire of Evil” and collapsed 8 years later…
A lie repeated a hundred of times ceases to be one; it now serves another purpose, namely, it misleads both their own army and the people. It is widely known that Azerbaijan is eager to launch hostilities against Nagorno Karabakh, and Armenia in general. Russian political scientist Alexander Skakov openly states that Baku has already taken a decision to start the war; the date just needs to be confirmed. If Baku starts the war, the hostilities will most likely be launched towards the presidential vote scheduled for fall 2013 in Azerbaijan. Despite the loud and delightful statements, Ilham Aliyev will again have to forge the results of the elections; then rallies and arrests will come, following the scenario of 2008. If one takes into account that the Aliyev clan is facing increasingly deteriorating attitude by the international community, Aliyev’s future appears quite gloomy. And here is the moment they would need a small triumphant war. No matter the war turns out to be neither a small nor a triumphant one; the important thing is to launch hostilities, and flights from Stepanakert to Yerevan may really trigger this.
Here the beginning of the World War II can be reminded. The parallel is not a commensurable one, and still… On September 1, 1939 at about 10a.m. Hitler got up on the rostrum and declared that Poland’s regular army had broken into the territory of Germany and started firing. Since 5:45 a.m., German soldiers have been firing and shelling in response. Later they claimed that the war was triggered by the attack of Polish guerillas against Gleiwitz radio station near the Polish border. Anti-German slogans were allegedly being shouted, and a German technician was reported to be killed during the incident. Later the attack appeared to be a staged one.
A graduate of Moscow State Institute of International Relations is apparently aware of all this, and he should have known the outcome of the World War II as well. In this case, Germany will be replaced by Azerbaijan, and Baku’s strategists must always bear this in mind. Turkey may lend a helping hand to Azerbaijan, or the Islamic solidarity might work here. However, nobody is going to carry the war for Ilham Aliyev; the dismal experience of the national-liberation fight in Karabakh in early 90s obviously made various mercenaries reluctant to do it again. Much can be purchased for money, but the skill for warfare is not the thing Aliyev can buy. Even though the Turkish military are far more educated than the Azerbaijanis, NATO specialists will deal with ЗРК Patriot. Hence Baku should consider its actions before ordering to shoot down civilian aircraft.