With the help of Baku Russia attempts to leave Europe gasless
Moscow is not so strong as to dictate conditions or to resolve the Karabakh conflict on her own, neglecting the USA and France.
The (at first glance) unexpected visit of the RF President to Baku in the light of the rapidly changing region cannot but put Yerevan on her guard. Actually for the first time in the last several years the issue is set maximally clear and open: gas in exchange for Karabakh. Moreover, it is said without any curtseys to the "strategic partner".
The statements made literally the day before by the Russian parliamentarians about the "inadmissibility of rewarding the President of Georgia with the highest order of Armenia" should have put the Armenian Government on her guard. Though these tactless statements had nothing to add to the actually vassal relations between Moscow and Yerevan, it seems they will ease Armenia's way to the West. All the more, statements of some Russian deputies can be considered direct interference in the domestic affairs of Armenia.
However, let us return to the visit of Dmitry Medvedev. The matter is not only the gas or Karabakh, though they are both very important. The situation in Iran seems to be normalizing, but how long will this seeming stability last? Russia needs strong rears, but Armenia alone cannot manage it, and Azerbaijan, after all, is a Moslem country, which can, when necessary, ease the tension on southern boundaries. However, it can also be vice versa, but Moscow prefers not to think about it. And what is most important - with the help of Baku Russia attempts to leave Europe gasless. By rough estimate, Russian policy has not changed for the last 100 or even 200 years. Everything is the same: to press down the weak and boast the natural resources - the only thing Russia had and still does. Nothing is changed. Under the present circumstances Yerevan can only wait to see to what point Aliev and Medvedev will talk. To change anything is above our bend. And here the matter is not the capability of our authorities or the unsuccessful selection of allies; simply it came out so: the geopolitical position of Armenia could be better. But we have what we have, and we can only hope that losses will be less than expected. The trouble with super-powers is that they are sure they can force the countries under their control to move in the course they dictate. Of course, the vassal countries themselves let themselves be governed, but it is a different matter. We are not going to use the favorite theses of Armenian correspondents saying, "Azerbaijan is an unreliable partner; at any moment it can turn to the West", and the like. More oppositional politicians already say that "they knew Moscow was going to leave Yerevan alone in clearing up matters with her neighbors". Azerbaijan can turn to wherever necessary, because she has oil, gas, open communications, enormous resources, and finally - all that Armenia or, let us say, Georgia do not have. However, Georgia has an outlet to the sea. And it turns out that Armenia, which has absolutely nothing, simply has to squeeze the maximum out of the impossible in order not to find herself in real isolation or, God forbid, in Turkey's good graces. But this version is the most probable, if we consider the arising reality. Judge yourselves: on the eve of the meeting with the US President, Medvedev "suddenly" goes to Baku. Then, according to certain sources, there goes also Vladimir Putin. All this occurs against the background of diplomatic bustle of Turkey, which with enviable constancy declares that the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations has a direct relation to the Karabakh conflict regulation. After the Obama-Medvedev meeting, the region will host Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group to arrange the next meeting of the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. No great effort is required to guess what kind of discussion will be held at that meeting. Armenia and Azerbaijan will simply be made to sign an agreement on beginning the regulation process on the basis of let us say, the Madrid principles. Neither Serzh Sargsyan, nor Ilham Aliyev will be able to refuse; the pressure is too high.
However, there is in this entire game, ventured by Russia for the purpose to finally bury the European gas projects, one lapse by Moscow. She is not so strong as to dictate conditions or to resolve the Karabakh conflict on her own, neglecting the USA and France. Hardly will Obama or Sarkozy agree to this resolution, especially because France is going to be the one suffering most from the mediation of Russia.
However, Armenia need not fear all the points listed above, although they are also occasions for concern. The point really worth worrying about is the position of Azerbaijan that can actually stake everything and launch a war. In any case, we get the impression that all parties allegedly interested in the resolution the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, simply push Baku to military operations, promising but giving nothing instead. In this connection, very interesting is the opinion of Co-Chairman of the Social-Democratic Party of Azerbaijan Araz Alizade. "I am hardly to be suspected in holding a pro-Western position, but in relation to selling gas to Russia, I would advise Azerbaijan to look before she leaps. Russia is a country that not always keeps her agreements. Let's remember her attitude towards Belarus or Turkmenistan. Therefore, Baku should treat the gas matter more carefully. If Moscow helps us to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, it would be reasonable to give gas to Russia. But let's not forget that we had exactly the same illusions when we were giving our oil to the West. Having invested billions of dollars into the country's economy, oil giants are now not going to risk them, and today naked threat of sanctions against Azerbaijan is voiced in the statements of international organizations and Western diplomats in case military operations are renewed," Alizade said, and to a certain extent he is right.
There is one more version: to test August 2008 on Baku and take complete control over energy resources. Possibly, this is the medium-term prospect of Russia, but in no way does it satisfy the West and, of course, Armenia. There is no doubt whatever that some gas agreement will be signed in Baku. But whether it will help the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution to be pro-Azerbaijani is a big question.
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
However, let us return to the visit of Dmitry Medvedev. The matter is not only the gas or Karabakh, though they are both very important. The situation in Iran seems to be normalizing, but how long will this seeming stability last? Russia needs strong rears, but Armenia alone cannot manage it, and Azerbaijan, after all, is a Moslem country, which can, when necessary, ease the tension on southern boundaries. However, it can also be vice versa, but Moscow prefers not to think about it. And what is most important - with the help of Baku Russia attempts to leave Europe gasless. By rough estimate, Russian policy has not changed for the last 100 or even 200 years. Everything is the same: to press down the weak and boast the natural resources - the only thing Russia had and still does. Nothing is changed. Under the present circumstances Yerevan can only wait to see to what point Aliev and Medvedev will talk. To change anything is above our bend. And here the matter is not the capability of our authorities or the unsuccessful selection of allies; simply it came out so: the geopolitical position of Armenia could be better. But we have what we have, and we can only hope that losses will be less than expected. The trouble with super-powers is that they are sure they can force the countries under their control to move in the course they dictate. Of course, the vassal countries themselves let themselves be governed, but it is a different matter. We are not going to use the favorite theses of Armenian correspondents saying, "Azerbaijan is an unreliable partner; at any moment it can turn to the West", and the like. More oppositional politicians already say that "they knew Moscow was going to leave Yerevan alone in clearing up matters with her neighbors". Azerbaijan can turn to wherever necessary, because she has oil, gas, open communications, enormous resources, and finally - all that Armenia or, let us say, Georgia do not have. However, Georgia has an outlet to the sea. And it turns out that Armenia, which has absolutely nothing, simply has to squeeze the maximum out of the impossible in order not to find herself in real isolation or, God forbid, in Turkey's good graces. But this version is the most probable, if we consider the arising reality. Judge yourselves: on the eve of the meeting with the US President, Medvedev "suddenly" goes to Baku. Then, according to certain sources, there goes also Vladimir Putin. All this occurs against the background of diplomatic bustle of Turkey, which with enviable constancy declares that the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations has a direct relation to the Karabakh conflict regulation. After the Obama-Medvedev meeting, the region will host Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group to arrange the next meeting of the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. No great effort is required to guess what kind of discussion will be held at that meeting. Armenia and Azerbaijan will simply be made to sign an agreement on beginning the regulation process on the basis of let us say, the Madrid principles. Neither Serzh Sargsyan, nor Ilham Aliyev will be able to refuse; the pressure is too high.
However, there is in this entire game, ventured by Russia for the purpose to finally bury the European gas projects, one lapse by Moscow. She is not so strong as to dictate conditions or to resolve the Karabakh conflict on her own, neglecting the USA and France. Hardly will Obama or Sarkozy agree to this resolution, especially because France is going to be the one suffering most from the mediation of Russia.
However, Armenia need not fear all the points listed above, although they are also occasions for concern. The point really worth worrying about is the position of Azerbaijan that can actually stake everything and launch a war. In any case, we get the impression that all parties allegedly interested in the resolution the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, simply push Baku to military operations, promising but giving nothing instead. In this connection, very interesting is the opinion of Co-Chairman of the Social-Democratic Party of Azerbaijan Araz Alizade. "I am hardly to be suspected in holding a pro-Western position, but in relation to selling gas to Russia, I would advise Azerbaijan to look before she leaps. Russia is a country that not always keeps her agreements. Let's remember her attitude towards Belarus or Turkmenistan. Therefore, Baku should treat the gas matter more carefully. If Moscow helps us to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, it would be reasonable to give gas to Russia. But let's not forget that we had exactly the same illusions when we were giving our oil to the West. Having invested billions of dollars into the country's economy, oil giants are now not going to risk them, and today naked threat of sanctions against Azerbaijan is voiced in the statements of international organizations and Western diplomats in case military operations are renewed," Alizade said, and to a certain extent he is right.
There is one more version: to test August 2008 on Baku and take complete control over energy resources. Possibly, this is the medium-term prospect of Russia, but in no way does it satisfy the West and, of course, Armenia. There is no doubt whatever that some gas agreement will be signed in Baku. But whether it will help the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution to be pro-Azerbaijani is a big question.
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
