June 20, 2006 - 14:08 AMT
INTERVIEW
Hrazdan Madoyan:
Having Turkized Javakhk Turkey Will Restore Continuous Turkish Zone from Anatolia to Azerbaijan
Situation in Samtskhe-Javakheti, which has never been calm, is attracting more attention of Armenian politicians lately. Various politicians and public figures speak on behalf of the population of that region of Georgia. Vice-Rector of Anania Shirakatsi University, author of a number of publications on the Armenian issue, Karabakh and Javakhk, political scientist Hrazdan Madoyan answers questions of PanARMENIAN.Net.
At present several non-governmental organizations speak on behalf of Armenians of Javakhk. The only thing is that they speak controversial matters. Where is the truth? Are NGOs commissioned to speak on behalf of the people of the region?
Organizations "speaking on behalf of the people of the region" can be conditionally divided into two or even three groups. First group includes organizations created by Armenians in Javakhk itself. Their differences refer to the tactical moves for struggle for their rights. However, they are united that the policy of Georgian central authorities within past 100 years and before was of accented anti-Armenian nature. It is aimed at expelling Armenians from the region, where they have lives for at least 3000 years, or changing the demographic situation to make Armenians minority without a right of vote. This group of organizations really reflects the opinion of the people. The second group is composed of organizations functioning or registered in Armenia. The authority of these is not large. These organizations avoid everything which can be interpreted as politics. The third group is represented by odious organizations or personalities like Georgian MP Van Baiburt, who serve not to Georgian authorities, but individual leaders. Tbilisi guides them and Javakhk has a respective attitude towards them. Finally, there are various Georgian organizations in Javakhk. They are all extremely nationalist, they deny opportunity of cooperation with Armenian organizations and pursue the official court of "Javakhk without Armenians." Past year owing to the launching of the plan of Turkization of Javakhk, activation of Turkish organizations is noticeable in the region: leaflets threatening Armenians are spread, which may also be provocation of Georgian special services.
The Russian base is being withdrawn from Akhalkalaki. Judging from opinions voiced, Armenians of the region become unprotected. What can be done in this situation without hurting interstate relations?
The flirting of Georgia with Russia is over. Georgia found another lover, which is wealthier and stronger, or even two of them. One of these is Turkey - a lover somehow brutish, whom Tbilisi had to leave in 1921, as Russia was not going to share Georgia. Thus, the romance with Turkey is a return for Georgia. The second lover is the US - a young muscular cowboy that a woman of Balzac became charmed by. Maybe this love affair for three is the last one in her life. It was clear that Russian military bases would be withdrawn from Georgia sooner or later. An event took place, which made null and void Russia's policy since almost Peter the Great: Russia withdrew from the Caucasus. All roads are open to panturanism. The base in Armenia is important to us, it solves a tactical, not strategic task. Upon Turkization of Javakhk - a thing Turkey has worked for always and to which Georgia suicidally contributes - Turks will restore the Turkish zone from Anatolia to Azerbaijan. Armenia becomes a secure enclave, fully dependent on the will and desires of Turkey. Thus we say that Javakhk is a matter of life to Armenia. Armenians of Javakhk are not unprotected. The population of the region can protect itself. Another matter is that it will ricochet Armenia, which will be involved in a conflict as in 1988. Meeting Javakhk demands is the only way out of the crisis today: making all Armenian regions and villages a joint administrative unit, providing it administrative autonomy, refusal of central authorities to change the demographic situation, free communication with Armenia.
Will the Kars-Akhalkalaki-Baku project be implemented?
It will be unambiguously, if Armenians do not excite a rebellion - not necessarily an armed one. If they do not rise, it will be the end of Javakhk.
Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia have signed an agreement on making a union. Why is not NKR among them?
The Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR) should be the forth in the Agreement between Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In spite of differences in details, the common thing of those countries is important: they declared their independence, underwent military aggression by states with large territorial and human resources, defended their independence in the war and now, 15 years later, they are much better formed as sovereign states, than those, who attacked them to annex them. No one can deprive peoples of the right to live on their own. There are several dozens of states with less territory and population, however no one questions their right to free and independent existence. The matter is that the UN believes that though everyone is equal, some are more equal.
The US and Russia have recognized Montenegro independence. Transnistria prepares to a referendum. The attitude towards the NKR is different. What is the matter - the energy resources in Azerbaijan or something else?
Energy resources and not only them. NATO works for maximal weakening and isolation of Serbia to avoid recurrence of Yugoslavia. In the reality Serbs are Catholics, Bosnians are Serb Muslims, while there are no people like Macedonians or Montenegrins. This looks like considering Montenegrins and Karabakh people a separate people. Thus an artificial problem was formed - the Montenegro independence, which won over half of the republic population. Transnistria has not oil or gas pipelines, thus it is not interesting. If it wants to live on its own - let it live. Thus, official recognition of the TMR [Transnistrian Moldovan Republic], after which the "M" will be omitted, is impending. Armenia is in the center of the region and for the time being it can control all produce pipelines theoretically, while if desired - also practically. It is not casual that the BTC is made longer and it was laid in a roundabout way, skipping over Javakhk, though along its border. The Armenian nation's spirit is raising now. The national spirit has got rid of the victim syndrome, there is no separatism problem in the country, a good combating army, which has passed Karabakh and won, relies only on itself and is self-confident. You cannot say this of the two neighbors, who lost and hope one for Turkey, the other for the US. Azerbaijan and Georgia are not formed as democratic states, which is proven by coups d'etat and civil wars in Georgia and establishment of eastern despotic monarchy in Azerbaijan. Armenia is exemplary against this background. The OSCE MG, CE, NATO want friendship with the bear and want to guard its honey. Recognition of the NKR will be protracted unless everyone puts off with the status quo, as it is evident that policy of search for compromise has exhausted itself and one of the parties will lose. Everyone knows that the right and truth are on the side of Armenian Montenegro, while oil is on Azerbaijan's side. If it were 1939, the NKR would have been annexed long ago on behalf of Hitler Germany, sorry, I mean Aliyev Azerbaijan, but it is 2006 now. The world has not become better, but it became more erudite. By the way, if a referendum is held in Transnistria and its independence is recognized, it will be a good signal for demanding a similar procedure in Javakhk. The legal framework for that is present.
Do you admit resumption of hostilities is possible in the region - I mean not only Azerbaijan, but also Georgia?
If Azerbaijan has not resumed hostilities against Armenia, this is not owing to fear of someone's blame. On one hand, if Baku had had even 50% confidence in victory, it would not take into account the US or NATO. On the other hand, possibly the US and NATO vetoed the war, maybe with strict sanctions, up to division of the country and depriving Aliyev of power. Resumption of hostilities was probable in Georgia: ambitious and fascisting Saakashvili, who considered himself a messiah and did not fulfill any of his promises, needs a small but winning war for a small, but proud bird, sorry, I mean country. It will probably end in the same way as previous ones. Then it is not ruled out that he may try to recoup himself on Javakhk, with the same outcome probably. Georgia in its current borders is less viable than Azerbaijan, Georgians have neither Turks' cruelty, nor their number. Stopping artificial blood circulation, etc, the country will be compressed to borders, which it is able to effectively control. He is sure Georgia is surviving now by stirring up Turks against Armenians, but this cannot take place endlessly. It has no oil or gas, then it is not interesting for the international community on the whole. They do not care through whose territory the produce pipeline goes, they just need it function uninterruptedly.