A poll shows that if three Israeli centrist figures were to form a new political party, it could win more seats in the Jan 22 parliamentary election than Benjamin Netanyahu's governing Likud.

According to The Associated Press, the Dialog survey, released Thursday, Oct 18, says a party with ex-Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, his onetime rival Tzipi Livni and charismatic former TV personality Yair Lapid could win 25 seats in the 120-seat assembly, to Likud's 24.

That lineup would not necessarily cost Netanyahu his job. The kingmaker in that scenario could be the ultra-Orthordox Jewish Shas, which could either stay with Likud — or cross political lines to join a centrist-dovish bloc. That is considered unlikely because of its nationalist and religious constituents.

Dialog surveyed 508 people. The poll had a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.