War in Karabakh Can Start Any Moment, ICG Vice President Considers
If we look at the Nagorno Karabakh conflict from the viewpoint of the OSCE Minsk Group, it may appear as the only conflict in the settlement of which all the world powers are interested, since neither the U.S. nor Russia or Europe benefit from the ongoing conflict, Alain Deletroz, Crisis Group Vice President for Europe stated. In his words, the situation on the contact line seems quiet because no one speaks of it. However, it does not allow speaking of the conflict as of a frozen one. If we compare the Karabakh conflict with the Abkhazian or the South Ossetian the number of victims at the contact line in Karabakh is much greater. "The Armenian Defense Minister with whom I met last September said 40 people die every year. I suppose the number of victims from the Azeri side does not differ. Thus, if the matter concerns 80 killed soldiers annually this conflict cannot be rated as frozen. War can break out any moment. If one conflicting party is convinced that it has enough strength to liberate the seized territories, war can be expected," Mr. Deletroz stated. According to him economy is slowly developing both in Armenia and Azerbaijan and it would be extremely disadvantageously to levy war. That is why there is a chance to settle the problem via negotiations, he noted.
When asked whether the Karabakh party is ready for constructive cooperation, the ICG Vice President said, "I see they wish to settle the issue but fear to lose the strategic advantages since the seized territories guarantee military security of Karabakh. However Karabakh wants to receive internationally recognized status and I suppose it will agree to conclude a peace treaty with international guarantees." As for the spirits in Karabakh Alain Deletroz said, "There are people in Karabakh who think "we are strong and we won". However Karabakh faces a serious problem of creation of new working places. The people live in an enclave and cannot visit either Turkey or Azerbaijan. Being a port and economic center of the region Baku plays an important role. People should have the opportunity to safely cross the frontline and in our report we explain how to open these corridors," reported Vremya Novostey.
When asked whether the Karabakh party is ready for constructive cooperation, the ICG Vice President said, "I see they wish to settle the issue but fear to lose the strategic advantages since the seized territories guarantee military security of Karabakh. However Karabakh wants to receive internationally recognized status and I suppose it will agree to conclude a peace treaty with international guarantees." As for the spirits in Karabakh Alain Deletroz said, "There are people in Karabakh who think "we are strong and we won". However Karabakh faces a serious problem of creation of new working places. The people live in an enclave and cannot visit either Turkey or Azerbaijan. Being a port and economic center of the region Baku plays an important role. People should have the opportunity to safely cross the frontline and in our report we explain how to open these corridors," reported Vremya Novostey.
