Russian expert: For Baku victory over Armenia and NKR is unrealistic
Politicians in Nagorno Karabakh have reached a national consensus that the republic must be an independent state, that's why the victory of this or that candidate in presidential elections will not principally influence on the general position, head of Caucasian department at the CIS Institute Mikhail Alexandrov stated.
"The matter is about nuances. Let us suppose that Bako Sahakyan occupies a moderate stance and is oriented towards relations with Armenia and talks with Azerbaijan. Masis Mailyan is tougher. He is against returning the seven occupied regions to Azerbaijan and supports more autonomous negotiation positions from Yerevan," Alexandrov noticed adding that in any case, politicians in Stepanakert consider dialog as the main vector for settlement. At the same time he added that Aliev's hopes to return Karabakh via dialog are naïve.
"Forceful solution is an adventure, which will result in Azerbaijan's break-up as a state. For Baku victory over Armenia and NKR is unrealistic irrespective of his increasing military budget," Alexandrov says. After all, the matter is not only in money, but also in fighting efficiency of army, he noticed. "In addition, Armenia is tied with Russia by military agreements, which supplies the republic with the most modern military equipment by much lower prices. Azerbaijan even cannot buy some kinds of armament in foreign markets, nobody will sell it to Baku. Thus, it is groundless to rely on blitzkrieg and superiority," Alexandrov underlined adding that such a "cycling" may result in a situation, when Azerbaijan will forever lose the seven regions that serve as a security belt around NKR.
He thinks that still there exists a chance to realize the formula known as "peace in exchange for territories", that is, Azerbaijan recognizes the independence of NKR, which in his part returns regions. "However, currently the time does not act in Baku's favor. The Kosovian precedent, which most likely will end by unilateral recognition of the province's independence by West, will only contribute to intentions of Karabakh. The "fifth colony" and overturn of power in Stepanakert are impossible, since there is not a single Azeri there," Mikhail Alexandrov concluded, Nakanune.ru reports.
"The matter is about nuances. Let us suppose that Bako Sahakyan occupies a moderate stance and is oriented towards relations with Armenia and talks with Azerbaijan. Masis Mailyan is tougher. He is against returning the seven occupied regions to Azerbaijan and supports more autonomous negotiation positions from Yerevan," Alexandrov noticed adding that in any case, politicians in Stepanakert consider dialog as the main vector for settlement. At the same time he added that Aliev's hopes to return Karabakh via dialog are naïve.
"Forceful solution is an adventure, which will result in Azerbaijan's break-up as a state. For Baku victory over Armenia and NKR is unrealistic irrespective of his increasing military budget," Alexandrov says. After all, the matter is not only in money, but also in fighting efficiency of army, he noticed. "In addition, Armenia is tied with Russia by military agreements, which supplies the republic with the most modern military equipment by much lower prices. Azerbaijan even cannot buy some kinds of armament in foreign markets, nobody will sell it to Baku. Thus, it is groundless to rely on blitzkrieg and superiority," Alexandrov underlined adding that such a "cycling" may result in a situation, when Azerbaijan will forever lose the seven regions that serve as a security belt around NKR.
He thinks that still there exists a chance to realize the formula known as "peace in exchange for territories", that is, Azerbaijan recognizes the independence of NKR, which in his part returns regions. "However, currently the time does not act in Baku's favor. The Kosovian precedent, which most likely will end by unilateral recognition of the province's independence by West, will only contribute to intentions of Karabakh. The "fifth colony" and overturn of power in Stepanakert are impossible, since there is not a single Azeri there," Mikhail Alexandrov concluded, Nakanune.ru reports.
