January 30, 2008 - 18:48 AMT
Kosovo independence may be proclaimed before February 18
Kosovo will declare independence from Serbia with Western backing the weekend after the February 3 Serbian presidential election if the nationalist candidate wins, political sources said on Wednesday.

"If Tomislav Nikolic wins, it's the 9th or 10th," a senior political source said on condition of anonymity.

A second source confirmed that if pro-Western incumbent Boris Tadic wins the knife-edge contest, ethnic Albanians in the breakaway province would be expected to wait at least another week, declaring on February 17 at the earliest.

The major Western powers are "pushing for February," one of the sources added. NATO's 16,000-strong peace force is braced for possible unrest, and a potential backlash by Serb-dominated north Kosovo where Serbs promise to reject independence.

European Union foreign ministers expect next month to approve the deployment a 1,800-strong police and justice mission over a 4-month transition from the United Nations authorities that have run Kosovo since the 1998-99 war.

Western diplomats say some of the 27 EU member states would favor delaying independence until late February or early March if Tadic wins Sunday's tight run-off election, keen to help him control the inevitable political fallout from the loss of what many Serbs regard as their religious heartland.

Moscow and Europe stake on Boris Tadic.

A senior Western diplomat told Reuters that victory for hardliner Nikolic, whose party leader is standing trial for war crimes stemming from the collapse of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, would undermine any calls for a delay on Kosovo.

"Expect that if Nikolic gets in, the process will be speeded up," the diplomat said, Reuters reports.