Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks are likely to fail, Director of Carnegie Moscow Center Dmitri Trenin has said, adding that Karabakh is no longer a frozen conflict but an active war zone.

His comments came after lengthy consultations between the Armenian, Russian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers in Moscow, where the parties agreed on a humanitarian ceasefire.

According to Trenin, Azerbaijan will press for Armenians to vacate the security zone around Nagorno-Karabakh, but the Armenians won’t step back.

"One frozen conflict less, one active war zone more," Trenin said in a tweet.

Azerbaijan, with help from Turkey, launched a large-scale offensive against Karabakh (Artsakh) in the morning of September 27, shelling Armenian positions and civilian settlements with large caliber weapons and rocket systems. Armenia and Karabakh have introduced martial law and total mobilization. The Armenian side has reported deaths and injuries both among the civilian population and the military. International and local journalists too have been injured in Azeri shelling of towns and villages, as well as the iconic Ghazanchetsots Cathedral in Shushi. A humanitarian ceasefire was supposed to begin from midday, October 10, but Azerbaijan has launched a new offensive and struck settlements both in Karabakh and Armenia.