The Nabucco pipeline project took a major step forward when five transit countries recently signed an agreement after years of hesitation. But at least one wild card remains in the path of the project's realization - Azerbaijan. Although Baku has voiced strong support for Nabucco, experts caution that the country's recent gas deal with Gazprom could complicate Baku's ability to serve as a major supplier for the long-planned pipeline.

Azerbaijan must also take into account Russia's increasing assertiveness in the region, underscored by last year's incursion of Russian troops into Georgia. The war disrupted Baku's oil exports and resulted in an estimated loss of over $1 billion in revenue.

One way of accomplishing the goal is to frame the 7.9-billion-euro (about $11.1 billion) Nabucco project in commercial, not political, terms. This week, Azerbaijani leaders and commentators attempted to do just that. President Aliyev and Energy Minister Aliyev have taken care of late to emphasize that future pipeline deals will be based on commercial factors. Few, however, believe that Nabucco can be separated from the political goal of reducing Europe's reliance on Russian gas, EurasiaNet reported.