RA Finance Ministry forecasts 10-15% GDP fall
GDP index in 2009 will fluctuate within the range of 10-15%, RA Finance Minster Tigran Davtyan finds. "From annual perspective, GDP index will be more encouraging, lower than 18%".
As noted by Minister, different mechanisms, methodologies and approaches are used for predicting GDP index. They each have their peculiarities, and the results obtained certainly differ, although very slightly. "Clear-cut prognosis present an intricate mechanism depending on many indexes, and economy is such a complicated system that cannot cover all the indexes," Mr, Davtyan said.
With regard to the prognosis for 2010, Minister said that economy is expected to gradually recover in that period. "We predict 1-1.5% economic growth, and the budget currently elaborated by Ministry is based on such forecasts," he said.
Minister does not anticipate inflation rate to exceed the predicted level. Moreover, there has been seasonal deflation during the past month. "We anticipate a very low inflation rate in the country for the coming year," Davtyan said.
In January-July 2009, inflation rate in Armenia made up 2.7% in comparison with the same period of last year. Deflation rate in comparison with June made up 2.7%. According to State Budget, inflation in 2009 is on the level of 4% ((±1,5%).
As noted by Minister, different mechanisms, methodologies and approaches are used for predicting GDP index. They each have their peculiarities, and the results obtained certainly differ, although very slightly. "Clear-cut prognosis present an intricate mechanism depending on many indexes, and economy is such a complicated system that cannot cover all the indexes," Mr, Davtyan said.
With regard to the prognosis for 2010, Minister said that economy is expected to gradually recover in that period. "We predict 1-1.5% economic growth, and the budget currently elaborated by Ministry is based on such forecasts," he said.
Minister does not anticipate inflation rate to exceed the predicted level. Moreover, there has been seasonal deflation during the past month. "We anticipate a very low inflation rate in the country for the coming year," Davtyan said.
In January-July 2009, inflation rate in Armenia made up 2.7% in comparison with the same period of last year. Deflation rate in comparison with June made up 2.7%. According to State Budget, inflation in 2009 is on the level of 4% ((±1,5%).
