Moody's Investors Service forecasts a sluggish recovery as the most likely global macro-economic scenario for 2010.

In 2010 update of its report series entitled "Moody's Global Macroeconomic Risk Scenarios", Moody's says that it does not expect the global economy to rebound strongly in 2010, but rather to return to trend growth rates, with persistent unemployment and budget deficits.

This is in line with the "hook"-shaped recovery scenario which Moody's introduced in May 2009 and which assumed that the crisis will leave enduring scars and that many economies will not return to their previous output paths.

According to Moody's new report, the sluggish recovery will be characterized by a lack of homogeneity in the economic rebound across different regions. "In most advanced economies, the recovery will be fragile because of numerous headwinds - especially those related to the expected challenges in sovereign risk in 2010," says Pierre Cailleteau, Managing Director of Moody's Global Sovereign Risk Group.

Indeed, Moody's new Macroeconomic Scenarios report should be read in conjunction with its recently published "Sovereign Risk: Review 2009 & Outlook 2010" (December 2009) as Moody's economic outlook is closely intertwined with its outlook for sovereign risk.

Another factor is that the combination of lower levels of activity - given the significant output losses - and diminished trend growth in many regions will have an important impact on credit. "The world has more or less tacitly opted for financial stability at the expense of economic vitality - and this will make the absorption of large public debts more challenging," explains Mr. Cailleteau.

Moody's report also identifies at least three downside risks - albeit of varying probability - to its hook-shaped global rebound scenario. The first is that of governments and central banks exiting high-stimulus policies in a disorderly fashion, leading to an abrupt increase in long-term interest rates and/or sharp currency realignments. The second is that financial institutions are unable to rebuild capital buffers at a sufficient speed to withstand the remaining economic and financial threats. The third and least probable downside risk is that of an unexpected decline in China's growth dynamic.