Some analysts have recently pointed out that tense relations with Israel would benefit Turkey by fortifying its position in the Middle East. Perhaps that would happen as far as the Middle East is concerned, or rather, the Arab world, but it would diminish its standing on the world stage, said Ara Papian, Head of the Modus Vivendi Centre.

“And, as they say in Odessa, those are two really different things. That which the Arab world has the capacity to provide for Turkey is readily available, namely, oil and a market. It is true that one might see more Turkish flags in Arab cities, Erdogan might be declared man of the year by some organisations, Armenian communities might have less ease to speak about the Armenian Genocide, and so on. However, such manifestations cannot be transformed into significant and tangible political advantages, to say nothing of military gains,” he said.

Papian went on saying, “That which Israel was able to provide for Turkey, and still partially does so, cannot be replaced by anyone upon its cessation. This refers to state-of-the-art military hardware, intelligence equipment and intelligence itself, as well as cordial relations with the American public and press. In losing these resources, Turkey cannot find others to replace them. Of course relations with the Arab public are important, but, when it comes to global political processes, it falls behind qualitatively in significance to Western public opinion. What Americans and Europeans think are decisive, and not the opinions of Arabs or Armenians. This is perhaps unfair, but it is the reality.”

“There is yet another dangerous development for Turkey. If Israel were to lose Turkey forever, then it would have no ally in the Middle East (except perhaps for Azerbaijan, which is a small player). Consequently, Israel will be simply forced to create a new ally for itself. That ally to be established would be an independent Kurdistan, the heart of which is in northern Iraq, but the borders of which – or rather, the aspirations for frontiers – will not be limited to that territory. Today, the Turkish Air Force is bombing its sovereign neighbour, Iraq, without any objections from the mass media and consequently from public opinion. All are turning a blind eye to it. This can soon change. The political vistas of many, as well as political memories, can soon improve immensely,” he said.