The statements made during Yerevan-hosted conference titled “CSTO and South Caucasus: Regional Peace and Security Perspectives” were a clear message for Azerbaijan. Should Azerbaijan start a new war, Armenia will have to participate in it, as a guarantor of Artsakh safety.

Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan said in his address to the conference that Armenia, as a full member of CSTO, has the right to expect support of its CSTO allies in case of Azerbaijan’s aggression. Under the CSTO, any aggression against a CSTO member state is viewed as an aggression against all member states.

Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Nikolai Bordyuzha reiterated the CSTO member states that Armenia, as a member of CSTO, has shouldered certain obligations, but the other members of CSTO also have obligations towards Armenia.

Asked how CSTO will behave in case of possible escalation in the region, Bordyuzha decided not to make hasty statements, noting that the Armenian and Russian Presidents do their utmost “to solve this complicate problem peacefully and reach an agreement with all the states involved in the Karabakh conflict.” In other words, they try to prevent a war, which is so desirable for and continuously promised by Azerbaijan. At the same time, Bordyuzha warned that regular violations of ceasefire may provoke a conflict, which is extremely undesirable for CSTO.

Conclusion: Armenia will not stay aside in case of Azerbaijan’s aggression against Karabakh, while CSTO, as per the agreements, will not sit on the sidelines in case of Azerbaijan’s aggression against Armenia. Thus, a war unleashed by Azerbaijan against Karabakh may turn into a war of Azerbaijan with CSTO, which is represented by Armenia, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. And, most likely, neither the great number of weapons, nor juvenile snipers and raiders will help Azerbaijan in such case.