Thomas Ambrosio, U.S. analyst on South Caucasus issues, an Associate Professor of political science at North Dakota State University has very low expectations from Karabakh settlement talks.

“The central problem is that nothing has changed: the positions of the two sides have not changed, the situation on the ground has not changed, and the international environment has not changed. Given that we are coming up on two decades since this conflict entered its frozen stage, I find it amusing that before every summit there is optimism expressed by politicians, activists, and the press that ‘this is the one’ to break the impasse. This conflict is frozen for a reason: the positions of the two sides are mutually incompatible. They are stuck in a zero-sum game. I see neither how this impasse can be broken nor do I see a reason for the perpetual pre-summit optimism – the latter just seems like wishful thinking,” the expert remarked.

“The positions of the two sides are incompatible. Unless something changes significantly (the positions of the sides, the situation on the ground, or the international environment) I do not see any offer that the Azeris could make that would be acceptable to both themselves and the other side,” he stressed.

Commenting on a possibility for the U.S. to take a more active role in the conflict adjustment, following Russia, the expert noted, “it will change nothing, unless it represents a change in the international environment, which it won’t.”

“Like the positions of the two parties directly affected by the conflict, the American position has not changed and will likely not change any time in the future. Plus, to be brutally honest, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has a rather low priority within the administration, given the other international and domestic crises either present or on the horizon. Therefore, I do not see anything different coming out of an American-led meeting than a Russian one or any other forum for that matter,” APA cited Ambrosio as saying.