The first vice president of Strategic Development Modeling Center forecasted a political split in South Caucasus.

“With Arab Spring gaining impetus, the South Caucasus states will become less aware of Karabakh issue, instead, focusing on political factors in the neighbouring states,” Grigory Trofimchuk stated.

“Georgia’s policy will become more West-oriented. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia, having pushed Karabakh issue to the background, will have to consider political factors around the South Caucasus, specifically, Syria, with increasingly worsening situation,” the expert noted, advising to settle Karabakh issue before it’s too late.

Dwelling on the role of Turkey in the process, the analyst was skeptical over the possibility for Ankara to increase its regional presence. “The Western states won’t allow of it, taking their best effort prevent the regional presence of a strong player like Turkey,” he concluded.