Rambouillet: There is One Step from Kosovo to Karabakh
Recently launched negotiations on the status of Kosovo will probably result in the international recognition of the country.
Negotiations between Belgrade and Prishtina on the future of Kosovo have started in Vienna. Analysts suppose that as a result of negotiations Kosovo's independence may achieve recognition by the world community. This will create an important precedent for recognizing the sovereignty of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The first round of negotiations was focused on decentralization of power and reformation of local authorities. On the next stages parties will start negotiating on Kosovo status, which will provoke more serious confrontations. The Parliament of Kosovo has empowered diplomats delegated to Vienna to insist only on a status supposing full independence. Thus, if the document signed by the representatives of Kosovo administration mentions any other status, it will be illegal, since it will conflict with the mandate given to the diplomats by legislators. Representatives of Belgrade in their turn announce that will in no case recognize Kosovo's independence. So what is the sense of negotiations if the deadlock is actually inevitable?
It appears that this time too the world community will have to take up the responsibility. It was like this when in Rambouillet Belgrade refused to sign the peace settlement plan proposed by mediators and supported by Albanians. At that time the UN Security Council gave OK to act of force and set a special status of Kosovo under the protectorate of UN. Here you can note parallels with Karabakh: a week ago in the same Rambouillet Azerbaijan refused to accept the mediators' proposal, which was basically approved by Armenia. Thus, maybe the world community should make its presence felt in case of Karabakh too...?
The grounds to prognose that international structures and Western countries will recognize Kosovo's independence appeared after the last meeting of contact group members dealing with Kosovo conflict settlement. On January 31 in London, during the group meeting participated by representatives of foreign ministries of USA, Russia, Great Britain, France and Italy it was decided that the status of Kosovo would be determined by a nation-wide referendum. (Of course only on the territory of Kosovo. Participation of Serbia in the referendum was simply out of the question). Today, Albanians are in absolute majority in Kosovo. This is why it is quite easy to guess the results of the referendum. "90% of Kosovo population is Albanians. What do you think they will decide?" said the special representative of UN Secretary General in the Kosovo negotiations Marti Akhtisaary in the interview to "Shpigel" magazine. And here also we can notice parallels with Karabakh where the Armenian population is more than 90%. The international crisis group dealing with the elaboration of conflict settlement variants suggests the UN to demand from Belgrade agree on the referendum on the condition that in case of declaration of independence Albanians will guarantee loyalty to the rights of Serbian minority. This scheme can also be applied with Karabakh.
As it seems the world community will have to recognize the independence of Kosovo. What will it give to us? Kosovo problem is a point of collision of world powers. Russia, protecting the interests of Serbia, tries to speed up the process of independence recognition. For this aim, Moscow has armed with a slogan, which looks quite attractive for us. Vladimir Putin says that principles laid in the basis of Kosovo conflict resolution should be universal and applicable in the solution of other conflicts, including those on the territory of former USSR. Meanwhile the West, having other priorities gives us a chance, insisting on the right of Kosovo people on self-determination. As a result the situation formed is quite beneficial for Karabakh. In Baku they already realize that recognition of Kosovo will create serious problems for Azerbaijan. Political scientist Rasim Musabekov for example says that recognition of Kosovo as an independent state might create quite an undesirable precedent for Azerbaijan. "Armenian separatists will use the moment in every possible way to solve their problems by analogy. We have to be ready for that", Musabekov says. At the same time he gives a special role to Moscow. "Russia is going to use this precedent in the context of other problems existing in Prednestrovie, Abkhazia, South Osetia and maybe Karabakh", said Musabekov in his interview to Baku journalists. Thus, it is quite clear that Azerbaijan will be one of the few countries, which will speak out against Kosovo independence in UN. In this case the Islamic solidarity is moved to the second plan.
It appears that this time too the world community will have to take up the responsibility. It was like this when in Rambouillet Belgrade refused to sign the peace settlement plan proposed by mediators and supported by Albanians. At that time the UN Security Council gave OK to act of force and set a special status of Kosovo under the protectorate of UN. Here you can note parallels with Karabakh: a week ago in the same Rambouillet Azerbaijan refused to accept the mediators' proposal, which was basically approved by Armenia. Thus, maybe the world community should make its presence felt in case of Karabakh too...?
The grounds to prognose that international structures and Western countries will recognize Kosovo's independence appeared after the last meeting of contact group members dealing with Kosovo conflict settlement. On January 31 in London, during the group meeting participated by representatives of foreign ministries of USA, Russia, Great Britain, France and Italy it was decided that the status of Kosovo would be determined by a nation-wide referendum. (Of course only on the territory of Kosovo. Participation of Serbia in the referendum was simply out of the question). Today, Albanians are in absolute majority in Kosovo. This is why it is quite easy to guess the results of the referendum. "90% of Kosovo population is Albanians. What do you think they will decide?" said the special representative of UN Secretary General in the Kosovo negotiations Marti Akhtisaary in the interview to "Shpigel" magazine. And here also we can notice parallels with Karabakh where the Armenian population is more than 90%. The international crisis group dealing with the elaboration of conflict settlement variants suggests the UN to demand from Belgrade agree on the referendum on the condition that in case of declaration of independence Albanians will guarantee loyalty to the rights of Serbian minority. This scheme can also be applied with Karabakh.
As it seems the world community will have to recognize the independence of Kosovo. What will it give to us? Kosovo problem is a point of collision of world powers. Russia, protecting the interests of Serbia, tries to speed up the process of independence recognition. For this aim, Moscow has armed with a slogan, which looks quite attractive for us. Vladimir Putin says that principles laid in the basis of Kosovo conflict resolution should be universal and applicable in the solution of other conflicts, including those on the territory of former USSR. Meanwhile the West, having other priorities gives us a chance, insisting on the right of Kosovo people on self-determination. As a result the situation formed is quite beneficial for Karabakh. In Baku they already realize that recognition of Kosovo will create serious problems for Azerbaijan. Political scientist Rasim Musabekov for example says that recognition of Kosovo as an independent state might create quite an undesirable precedent for Azerbaijan. "Armenian separatists will use the moment in every possible way to solve their problems by analogy. We have to be ready for that", Musabekov says. At the same time he gives a special role to Moscow. "Russia is going to use this precedent in the context of other problems existing in Prednestrovie, Abkhazia, South Osetia and maybe Karabakh", said Musabekov in his interview to Baku journalists. Thus, it is quite clear that Azerbaijan will be one of the few countries, which will speak out against Kosovo independence in UN. In this case the Islamic solidarity is moved to the second plan.
