In our opinion in this case there would work the law of large numbers, i.e. roughly speaking there would win the one who would get most weapons and would regiment the largest number of soldiers. This does not include the various armed groups fighting on one side or another on the basis of religion, passions and simply money. As has been said, the war is between Sunnis and Shiites or, more generally, between the U.S. and Russia for hegemony on the vast territory from North Africa to Central Asia, or rather to China and India.

Our neighbors, namely Iran and Turkey, have huge armies, and just a slightest reason is enough for them to regiment over one million people on each side. And be there a will, a reason can always be found, especially when you consider the exorbitant ambitions of Turkey. Let us now compare the figures. Iranian armed forces consist of two independent agencies – the Army of the Islamic Republic and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Their total number reaches 523 thousand. Another 350,000 are registered in reserve, and 40-60 thousand people are employed by paramilitary agencies. In addition, there is the “Basij” Resistance Force, a volunteer paramilitary organization operating under the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which officially includes 12.6 million Iranians, including women and children.

Overall strength of the Turkish Armed Forces, excluding reservists, is 720,000 people. For full mobilization in wartime the military trained reserve of up to 90,000 people can also be used, including 38,000 reservists of the first stage.

Armies in the South Caucasus states are, naturally, less both in number and in technical equipment, which in a modern war plays a significant role, to say the least.

The overall strength of the Armed Forces of Georgia used to be 39,000 people in 2011. Mobilization forces - 140 thousand people. The Armed Forces of Azerbaijan comprise 66,940 men, of whom 56,840 the land force, 2200 the navy, 7900 the air force, and 210,000 people in reserve. The armed forces of Armenia, according to various estimates, comprise 50 to 70 thousand people, with another 210,000 people in reserve. Such are the quantitative indicators. However, it is not about the army or even the equipment. Much more important is the moral component, which is known to often break the course of military operations. A simple example is the national liberation war in Nagorno-Karabakh, which ended in victory of the people of Artsakh, despite the numerical superiority of Azerbaijan in manpower and equipment. Back in 1992, even the mujahideen mercenaries proved unable to save the Azerbaijani army.

In case of the most pessimistic forecast, the South Caucasus states will "return" into the empires – Ottoman, Persian or Russian. But this is an extreme case. Georgia has already started to drift to NATO, wittingly or unwittingly contributing to the revival of the Ottoman Empire within the borders of pre-World War I. Azerbaijan will be divided between Iran and Russia. As for Armenia, it is not clear what would be with it: too many countries are wishing to use the territory of the Armenian Republic for transit of energy resources, especially in light of the fact that the U.S. and Europe need new pipelines to carry energy from the Caspian Sea.

Meanwhile, according to public sources, the energy resources of the Caspian Sea and Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan) have inflated in recent years. In the 90s the U.S. estimated the Caspian Sea reserves to be 100-150 billion barrels. Now they are estimated to be less than half or even 50 billion. Proven oil reserves of the Caspian Sea range from 16 to 22 billion, which is comparable with the reserves of the United States (22 billion) and the North Sea (17 billion), and is 10-15 times less than all the reserves of the Middle East. Proven gas reserves of the Caspian Sea are 236-337 trillion cubic feet, comparable to U.S. reserves - 300. Turkmenistan ranks 11th in the world, with estimated 159 trillion cubic feet gas, Uzbekistan - 110, Kazakhstan - 88, Azerbaijan - 35. But even these supplies must be transported through a quiet region, in order to prevent terrorist attacks. Moreover, the pipeline should be as short as possible to reduce costs. An example of a costly and unnecessary pipeline is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, which only confirms that politics does not always contribute to economy; everything is just the other way round.

In the twentieth century wars were fought for energy resources, and in our case there can’t be excluded local collisions for pipe. The region is too unstable, if we take into account not only the situation in connection with Iran's nuclear program, which can be as real as the weapon of mass destruction of Saddam Hussein that was never found, and there is no guarantee that it will ever be proved that Iran has a nuclear bomb. Far too dangerous is the presence of nuclear weapons in Pakistan and Israel. There is also Afghanistan torn by civil war. Not to mention the number of weapons that are available in the region. But all the above is not to say that a war is inevitable. The UN, U.S. and even the West in general had better not arm insurgents and adopt dangerous resolutions, but leave the Middle East and Central Asia in peace, instead. The world community, calling for peace (although yet in words only), will only benefit from this.