Armenia has good chances to become a central force in the region

PanARMENIAN.Net - The route map on Armenian-Turkish ties normalization has given rise to various reactions in public, political and analytical circles. However, to obtain a more comprehensive and accurate picture, it is necessary to reduce the emotional component, David Babayan, a political scientist from Karabakh, writes in an article entitled "Armenian Turkish geo-politics: real situation and perspectives".



The political scientist finds that domestic policy requires sober approach to different problems. "It doesn't mean that the emotional component should be absolutely ignored in politics, because this is a kind of immune system for the nation; once it's lost, the state may find itself in a very complicated situation," the article says.



According to Babayan, if Turkism becomes a principal trend in Turkey's policy, it will produce a direct impact on the country's multi-million Kurdish population whose native land, by the way, was adjacent to the South Caucasian region. "Turkism will arouse serious concerns among Kurds and seriously impact their policy."



Clearly, Turkey will have to compensate the existing dissatisfaction and distrust by proposing a national ideology capable of ensuring stability and internal self-satisfaction in Turkish public. The only way to achieve that is to pursue the Islam religion. Actually, by attacking Israel, Ankara has officially recognized Islamic religion as its national ideology. In view of Turkey's more active role in the South Caucasus, especially, the combination of Turkism and Islamist religion, Armenia is assuming an increasingly important role for Georgia, Iran, Israel and the Arab world. Armenia has good chances for becoming a central force in the region.



Studying the Armenian-Turkish geopolitics, we are confronted the following question: what's the price of that? "If Ankara proposes the Azerbaijani scenario of Karabakh settlement as a precondition (i.e. the de-facto and step-by-step partition of Artsakh), then, all the possibilities becoming a central force will vanish. The loss of Artsakh is fraught with an overwhelming shock, leading to the collapse of the nation. Such scenario is certainly unacceptable, especially considering that Ankara will hardly insist on its previous statement on the Armenian-Turkish ties normalization being a parallel process with Karabakh settlement. The country is now required to enter Tran Caucasus and establish firm positions in any part of the region except Azerbaijan. Only in that case can Turkey resort to other methods. But if we conduct a balanced and well-reasoned policy, we'll really manage to attain desired results," he noted.