CHANGE OF POWER IN GERMANY MAY BURY THE IDEA OF TURKEY'S EU MEMBERSHIP

PanARMENIAN.Net - Political analysts consider the coming of "Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union" quite realistic. The ruling Social-democratic party headed by Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has lost the greatest part of the Land elections. The last drop was the loss in the most populous and urbanized Land - North Rhine-Westphalia where the "Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union" has ruled without break during the past 39 years. After a series of failures, the Social Democrats have little chance of success. The negative outcome of the European Constitution referendum in France weakened Schroeder's party even more since the Germans associate the failure of European constitution with the failure of its founders, including the German Chancellor.

The change of power may bring certain changes in the state policy of Germany concerning issues that are in the interests of Armenia. This first of all refers to Turkey. With the coming of Christian Democrats the position of Berlin concerning Armenian Genocide will become much more distinct. According to the Armenian Ambassador in Germany Karine Kazinyan, the resolution, recognizing the fact of Armenian Genocide in Ottoman Turkey may be passed by the Bundestag yet before its dissolution. However, if that does not happen, the future parliament controlled by the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union will probably insert tougher formulations in the resolution text. In this situation Armenian community does not need to hurry with the lobbying of returning the issue of Armenian genocide to the agenda.

The Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union may arouse the issue of Armenian genocide already in June not to win the votes of German Armenians, but to demonstrate their principality towards Ankara and to persuade people in their ability to prevent Turkey's EU membership. Excessive radicalism of Angela Merkel in this issue should more likely alarm than please Armenian political leaders. The thing is that the leader of Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union excludes the possibility of Turkey's EU membership, accepting only Turkey's status of a "special partner". In this case Miss Merkel shows solidarity to the French people who, judging by the results of the referendum, also intend to get rid of the undesirable neighborhood with the Turks, even if they fulfill all the set requirements. This means that Ankara actually does not need to fulfill any requirements, including those concerning the genocide and the opening of the borderline with Armenia. Such an approach contradicts to our interests since it bears a hidden threat to our national security, because outcast Turkey will not only refuse to compromise, but will also become an unpredictable neighbor. Paradoxically, it turns out that in this case the interests of Yerevan and Ankara coincide, since full removal of the issue of Turkey's EU membership from the agenda equally contradicts the interest of both Armenia and Turkey.